vB Easy Archive - Bad News for Apple and iPhone

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Bad News for Apple and iPhone
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Posted by: GregGebhardt

http://www.news.com/8301-13579_3-98...g=2547-1_3-0-20

Maybe another price decrease is on the way!

Posted by: leafsfan81

Wirelessly posted (SCH-U540/1.0 NetFront/3.0.22.2.5 (GUI) MMP/2.0)

They have a bias against Apple in general. You have to take some of those articles with a grain of salt.

Posted by: 3sonmac

Quote:

Originally Posted by leafsfan81

Wirelessly posted (SCH-U540/1.0 NetFront/3.0.22.2.5 (GUI) MMP/2.0)

They have a bias against Apple in general. You have to take some of those articles with a grain of salt.

Did you read the other articles this guy writes ... not just Apple... It makes you think someone pissed in his cheerios everyday of his life.

Posted by: dsigma6

Quote:

Originally Posted by leafsfan81

Wirelessly posted (SCH-U540/1.0 NetFront/3.0.22.2.5 (GUI) MMP/2.0)
You have to take some of those articles with a grain of salt.

I took 3 grains today.

Look at the dudes picture at the top. Would you be friendly if you looked like him? (probably what half of HoFo looks like...)

Posted by: shaolinmonk

just sounds like he's stating the obvious.. whoever thought the iphone was gonna be on every street corner, everywhere in the world is quite frankly delusional...

Posted by: Quake97

Quote:

Originally Posted by shaolinmonk

just sounds like he's stating the obvious.. whoever thought the iphone was gonna be on every street corner, everywhere in the world is quite frankly delusional...

I thought the same thing, but I see iPhones everywhere? It's one of the reasons I put mine on hiatus. I hate having a phone everyone else does.

Joe

Posted by: toomer

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3sonmac

Did you read the other articles this guy writes ... not just Apple... It makes you think someone pissed in his cheerios everyday of his life.

I saw Tony's original piece on this yesterday (before CNet wrote their coverage) and wasn't surprised by his bias. He's known for this kind of stuff - he tracks a few companies I invest in, and he's always saying the sky is falling in his reports. If you can have "bear" and "bull" markets ... then this guy is a "bear" analyst.

Granted, there are some valid points to consider in his piece ... but I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who is aware of Sacconaghi's perspective in the articles he writes.

Posted by: shaolinmonk

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quake97

I thought the same thing, but I see iPhones everywhere? It's one of the reasons I put mine on hiatus. I hate having a phone everyone else does.

Joe

don't think the iphone has quite reached moto razr "everywhere" or nokia 3390 status

Posted by: Kolt Seavers

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quake97

I thought the same thing, but I see iPhones everywhere? It's one of the reasons I put mine on hiatus. I hate having a phone everyone else does.

Joe

Same here...

Posted by: gjkiii

Whether its biased or not I am not surprised by the article. One would think that the phone would sell very strong for the first 4-5 months and then taper off. I do not think it will ever have those strong sales like it did in the beginning. Most people who want one probably already have it. Personally I feel that apple eliminated "X" amount of sales by going exclusive to 1 carrier (here in the US). I can't help but wonder how many more they would have sold or how many they currently would be selling if the phone was available on all carriers.

Posted by: shaolinmonk

Quote:

Originally Posted by gjkiii

Whether its biased or not I am not surprised by the article. One would think that the phone would sell very strong for the first 4-5 months and then taper off. I do not think it will ever have those strong sales like it did in the beginning. Most people who want one probably already have it. Personally I feel that apple eliminated "X" amount of sales by going exclusive to 1 carrier (here in the US). I can't help but wonder how many more they would have sold or how many they currently would be selling if the phone was available on all carriers.

at the same time.. keeping it exclusive and all this unlocking, modding business keeps the hype up.. keeps it in the news and creates demand... i think apple will release the next one unlocked for all...because the first iphone paved the way for people to "want" the device...

Posted by: samab

Quote:

Originally Posted by leafsfan81

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They have a bias against Apple in general. You have to take some of those articles with a grain of salt.

What bias?

Even Munster is saying that there are 512,000 iphones in channel inventory --- and Munster is the biggest Apple cheerleader on Wall Street.

Not much difference between Sacconaghi's 670,000 iphones in channel inventory and Munster's numbers.

Posted by: Haas_Dave

We've had repeated claims everyday that 'within weeks we'll have a 3G iPhone' keep forcing people to not buy it for one. In many circles, that has been the biggest reason those that want an iPhone haven't bought one yet (that and being carrier unlocked).

I'm not surprised by this but I doubt these findings preclude more price cuts, as Apple would have to drop the price of other products (*cough* the Touch) to make things good and I don't see that happening now. Apple already have arms against them with the 'paid apps' update and an additional iPhone price drop would add fuel to the flaming from both iPhone and Touch owners.

Posted by: levi1826

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quake97

I thought the same thing, but I see iPhones everywhere? It's one of the reasons I put mine on hiatus. I hate having a phone everyone else does.

Joe

Quake how is it to go back to the Blackjack after using the iphone? I know you adjust but wow.... I only say this because i have a blackjack II and to go back to that after using the iphone is very difficult for me. Although i don't use my phones for business purposes but still.....

Posted by: COBRASVT

As soon as it has:

• Wireless Bluetooth Stereo Streaming (A2DP)
• Picture messages (MMS)
• 3G
• GPS
• Expandable Storage (can live w/out)

I'm on board. Not until!

I can live w/the other deficentcies.

But this lil gem might just be changing the game even more.

Skyfire Mobile Browser . Will be nice to truly see the inet the way home computers do on your mobile!

Posted by: toomer

Quote:

Originally Posted by gjkiii

Now that we're 6-8 months into the product, it's not uncommon (IMO) for sales to trail off a bit. But I think Apple has expected this and planned for it ...

I think the release of the SDK, and the availability of new applications as a result (think about things like a SlingPlayer for iPhone) will give it the next bump that it needs to sustain higher momentum. Certainly, it will generate a lot of press.

And then when the SDK bump starts to fade in the late fall, the supposed 3G iPhone will give it a bump once again ... again, with more press attention.

Smart companies plan out these feature release cycles well in advance. I have a suspicion Apple has a roadmap in mind that stretches at least into 2009 ...

Posted by: IcemanMN

My 2-year Sprint contract expired at Christmas time, and I picked up an iPhone last week. I have to tell you, the Apple store was packed, and I wasn't the only one buying an iPhone. I stopped in at the Sprint store to get my account #, and the Sprint store was empty. One employee. Ouch! At this rate I doubt Sprint will survive until the end of the year.

Posted by: wylofr

Ha, yeah, I've heard that Sprint has been having problems...

I also find that article somewhat presumptuous, although I was tepid towards the iphone from the beginning and still have not made that leap yet. One thing I'm curious about is how apple will handle updates of the iphone. Frequent hardware and software upgrades keep most of their products selling continuously, so I doubt the iphone will be any different. I wonder how long until the next new design...

Posted by: levi1826

Quote:

Originally Posted by wylofr

Ha, yeah, I've heard that Sprint has been having problems...

I also find that article somewhat presumptuous, although I was tepid towards the iphone from the beginning and still have not made that leap yet. One thing I'm curious about is how apple will handle updates of the iphone. Frequent hardware and software upgrades keep most of their products selling continuously, so I doubt the iphone will be any different. I wonder how long until the next new design...

I was actually on the same boat as you but I leaped recently. Interesting things is how negative alot of people talk about the phone but i find myself liking it more each day. I'm in my 14day trial period and i must say i'm leaning towards it. I have a blackjack II and razrV9 that have 3G and even though it's 3G it just doesn't make for a good web browsing experience in my opinion compared to the edge iphone. Certain web pages yes but for the most part not a big deal compared to the iphone. I can only imagine how fast and great the iphone will be with 3G. That's the only thing that's making think of taking it back and waiting. But it's good enough to keep now for 10 months and then maybe upgrade again with the 3G model. Like someone said on here that' what Ebay and Craigslist if for so you can recoup a lil something. Or give it to a family member.

Posted by: samab

Quote:

Originally Posted by toomer

Now that we're 6-8 months into the product, it's not uncommon (IMO) for sales to trail off a bit.

But I think Apple has expected this and planned for it ...

AT&T activation numbers stalled after 3 months of the launch --- not 6-8 months. It stalled during the busy christmas quarter (it's not like the numbers stalled during Q2 or Q3 which nobody cares). And it stalled after a massive $200 price cut.

And O2 had to give 3x more voice minutes on the new and improved iphone monthly plans.

Posted by: toomer

Quote:

Originally Posted by samab

Hah.

Hahahahahahaha.

I really, really do enjoy your never-ending stream of "The Sky Is Falling!" posts around here ... thanks for continuing to provide us with entertainment.

"Stalled" is an interesting word. It's not the word I used. I used trailing off. But you used "stalled", so let's take a look at that.

"Stalled" ... as in, after five months of pent-up demand since the iPhone announcement and lines of buyers hundreds deep at stores all around the country on opening day, sales have "stalled" - comparatively speaking - since then?

Um, yeah. No kidding, sherlock. Figure that one out all by yourself?

"Stalled" ... as in, Apple now looks unlikely to achieve their stated goal of 1% of the market by the end of 2008? Sorry, don't see it.

I do agree, O2's plans were crappy.

And I believe that if Apple can't secure an APAC deal or two, their 1% goal might be in jeopardy.

But sorry to disappoint you Samab, the sky is not falling.

But do keep the laughs coming. Thanks!

Posted by: samab

Quote:

Originally Posted by toomer

But sorry to disappoint you Samab, the sky is not falling.

I am not saying the sky is falling.

I am saying that in order for your theory to work (i.e. Apple planned for this and that) --- then you have to acknowledge the early and sudden $200 price cut was part of the plan (and the $100 rebate was part of the plan), the early and sudden tripling of O2 voice minutes are part of the plan.

Either Apple planned for the price gouging of early iphone adopters or Apple mispriced the iphone in the first place. What you are saying is basically Apple planned it all along.

1% of the 2008 worldwide cell phone market is about 12.5 million iphones in 12 months (it was 1 billion cell phones in 2006, 1.1 billion cell phones in 2007 and probably 1.25 billion cell phones in 2008). Not 10 million iphones in 18 months.

Posted by: nfl46

I just got an Iphone today. Best phone I've EVER owned!!!

Posted by: ragweed

From BusinessWeek -- Millions of iphones Go AWOL -- http://businessweek.com/technology/...week+exclusives

Posted by: toomer

Quote:

Originally Posted by samab

Either Apple planned for the price gouging of early iphone adopters or Apple mispriced the iphone in the first place. What you are saying is basically Apple planned it all along.

Um, no.

I discussed features. FEATURES.

Like the SDK? As I mentioned? Feature...
Like the 3G iPhone? As I mentioned? Feature...

And oh, look at this quote from me...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toomer

Smart companies plan out these feature release cycles well in advance.

(emphasis added)

Not prices. Not plans. Nowhere did I discuss any of that. You did.

Thanks for playing, but I stand by my original assessment - that Apple has a [feature release] roadmap in mind that stretches at least into 2009 ...

Posted by: THETRUTH#34

I think what toomer said is valid, its not uncommon at all for sales to drop, ill even go a step further to say the next generation iphone 3g or not will not sell as well as the first. Thats because there will be other companies and competition offering similar features in the touch screen dept,3g is getting pretty common around here and plenty of companies are learning from what apple did and will improvise and tweak there products. The #1 reason is its not new anymore the hype has died down.

Posted by: samab

Quote:

Originally Posted by toomer

Um, no.

I discussed features. FEATURES.

Like the SDK? As I mentioned? Feature...

By waiting under last October to announce that they are planning to introduce SDK to developers until Feb 2008 show that it wasn't planned all along.

It's not like Apple was secretly trying to find the next talented programmer by frustrating apple fanbois for so long that some kid had programmed an unofficial SDK package --- that Apple promptly decided to hire.

Posted by: samab

Quote:

Originally Posted by THETRUTH#34

I think what toomer said is valid, its not uncommon at all for sales to drop, ill even go a step further to say the next generation iphone 3g or not will not sell as well as the first.

Yes, it's not uncommon at all for sales to drop. But was it worth it for the carriers to sign a revenue sharing deal with Apple, to PO a bunch of independent agents and corporate store employees...

The carriers signed up for a 26 mile marathon and activation fizzled at mile 2.

Posted by: Cardiff Giant

the downright preposterous way they're handling premier account holders who want an iPhone is a big reason why I won't be getting one, and I moved to the Mac in 1999!

Posted by: Ludawg94

Here's another one from fortune read it yesterday basically the same thing. Apple's Iphone Dilemma I wouldn't discredit the guy from c-net otherwise business week and fortune would have something against Apple too.

Posted by: experiment626

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragweed

From BusinessWeek -- Millions of iphones Go AWOL -- http://businessweek.com/technology/...week+exclusives

Not surprised at all.In hindsight I wonder if Apple is happy they signed an exclusive deal with AT&T for as long as 5 yrs instead of say 2 yrs?

Posted by: N.Y. Johnny

Quote:

But this lil gem might just be changing the game even more.

Skyfire Mobile Browser . Will be nice to truly see the inet the way home computers do on your mobile!

On the right phone this will sway me for sure. I eyed this thing and boy would I love to try it out. I love the iPhone's UI and its slick and easy to navigate around and use, but I really would love desktop type experiences with flash like this. I'd definitely consider another phone with this.

Posted by: dsigma6

Quote:

Originally Posted by COBRASVT

As soon as it has:

• Wireless Bluetooth Stereo Streaming (A2DP)
• Picture messages (MMS)
• 3G
• GPS
• Expandable Storage (can live w/out)

I'm on board. Not until!

I can live w/the other deficentcies.

You won't buy the iPhone until it has these things, but you'll use a Moto happily??

Posted by: josesxi

^You took the worlds out of my mouth.

Posted by: CurtisPulley

no big deal, consumers are waiting for the 3 G version to come out. i know i am. also gps would be great. when are they coming out with the tomtom gps equipped with tele atlas maps? i saw this http://www.engadget.com/2007/12/12/...one-gps-module/ about a month ago and haven't heard anything since. That would be sweet to have tomtom capability, accurate tele atlas maps, real time traffic from wifi, and 3g....people are just eagerly anticipating this.

Posted by: Really_Annoyed

Seems like Wall Street is finally catching up to the fact that Apple sold 4 million iPhones to the entire world, population 6.6 billion (thanks to resellers). This is very different than selling 4 million in US, population 300 million, alone.

And there is no way 3G iPhone will reach the same sales numbers as the first iPhone in the same amount of time, not unless it offers some feature that the average joe will find "cool" (can't think of anything). Faster speed, great. GPS, great. Expandable memory, great. A2DP, great. But average person does NOT care about these things. How many Razr owners ran out and got the new V3xx as soon as it came out? Heck, most people still don't know the difference between V3 and V3xx.

Posted by: free_gas

Quote:

Originally Posted by experiment626

Not surprised at all.In hindsight I wonder if Apple is happy they signed an exclusive deal with AT&T for as long as 5 yrs instead of say 2 yrs?

Only means 2 things:
1, GSM iPhones for another 4.5 years, a good thing

2, Non OOTB unlocked iPhones for 4.5 years, unless AT&T Apple decide to annul the contract.

I would not have purchased an iPhone Iff:
(now sold went back to my moto v186, don't flame me bro!

)

1) Apple had not cut the price to $299 for the 4gig and $399 * respectively

2) Unlockable

The best part of the purchase was the unboxing, its like cutting into dark forest chocolate cake!

Posted by: cowboy1964

Quote:

Originally Posted by gjkiii

Personally I feel that apple eliminated "X" amount of sales by going exclusive to 1 carrier (here in the US). I can't help but wonder how many more they would have sold or how many they currently would be selling if the phone was available on all carriers.

I can't believe how many people still don't realize Apple is making far more money by locking in with AT&T. Don't you know how much money Apple gets from every subscriber? Over a few years it will be more than they make off the initial sale of the hardware.

Posted by: cowboy1964

Quote:

History will judge the George W.Bush Presidency as the most corrupt & incompetent in the history of the United States.

Not even Bush can beat the incompetence of Jimmy Carter or the corruption of Bill Clinton. I guess you forgot about Richard Nixon as well.

And.... if you don't want these kind of comments in threads, don't post those kind of comments in sigs.

Posted by: Avironeur

Bill Clinton didn't erase our liberties and rights in the name of some ghosts that supposedly want to kill us. Bill Clinton didn't also attempt to create a theocracy of the majority. Freedom means we have to support the rights of and tolerate those who do not agree with us, not create laws based on the majority's religious beliefs. That is neither here nor there. Carry on happy iPhone owners. I did not mean to interrupt. Some things however cannot be ignored.

Posted by: CurtisPulley

Quote:

Originally Posted by Really_Annoyed

And there is no way 3G iPhone will reach the same sales numbers as the first iPhone in the same amount of time, not unless it offers some feature that the average joe will find "cool" (can't think of anything). Faster speed, great. GPS, great. Expandable memory, great. A2DP, great. But average person does NOT care about these things. How many Razr owners ran out and got the new V3xx as soon as it came out? Heck, most people still don't know the difference between V3 and V3xx.

You're actually probably, right, i actually heard it was a fake positing...Still would love to see some sort of GPS compatibility. Even Tele atlas signed a deal with PSP to have GPS compatibility. Apple needs to get on GPS right away otherwise they're dropping the ball.

Posted by: Orangejello727

The mere fact that the phone has upgradable software with the choice of adding new applications is good enough for me! How many phones can do that with the ease of pressing a button? Im no phone guru, and ill pay for convenience.

And how far fetched is the price of $400 for a phone when you compare it to the blackberries and other similar phones?

Posted by: oompah

Quote:

Originally Posted by dsigma6

I took 3 grains today.

Look at the dudes picture at the top. Would you be friendly if you looked like him? (probably what half of HoFo looks like...)

I would ditch the eyeglasses and shave that weird lookin' hair off his chin.