Verizon to kill 3G by 2013, AT&T continues deploying it

**Trocks797** · 05-20-2011, 06:01 PM

Well, Malone said today that 3G will be coming to an end in 2013. In fact, he stated most phones sold then will not even support 3G, if the market takes off like they hope. With VoLTE coming sooner than later, this is no surprise.

So while Verizon speaks of demolishing their 3G network to make room for more LTE, AT&T is like wtf hold on we are still rolling it out!

Thoughts?

**every1nosme** · 05-20-2011, 06:18 PM

Kind of seems a little premature since they are still selling devices on 2 year contracts that would essentially be hamstrung by this.

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**Sailorcancer** · 05-20-2011, 06:41 PM

Originally Posted by every1nosme

Kind of seems a little premature since they are still selling devices on 2 year contracts that would essentially be hamstrung by this.

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While I agree, they could just allow the people buying phones early upgrades whever this happens in 2013. Since it would be roughly 2 years from now.

**gvillager** · 05-20-2011, 06:49 PM

I think Malone is being misquoted in the article. It simply doesn't make sense to shut down 3g by the end of 2013. Too many people will still be using 3G devices, the replacement and labor costs associated with this transition would be prohibitive.

This article appeared yesterday on RCR:

http://www.rcrwireless.com/article/2...drivers-of-lte

To help meet that expanding ecosystem and make broadband more readily available across the nation, Verizon plans to virtually blanket all of the country with LTE coverage within the next three years. The carrier also plans to increase coverage and capacity on its 3G CDMA network.

I think we'll see 3G around till at least 2018 and maybe even 2025. Look how long they had to keep analog active due to FCC requirements. I suspect they'll have to go through a similar process for 3G.

**flash007** · 05-20-2011, 09:09 PM

LTE doesn't support voice yet and it won't even get to this area by the end of the year. They would have to start pushing all LTE phones, have the LTE martket completly rolled out and then give people a couple years to upgrade to the LTE phones before ending CDMA service.

2025 seems like a more realistic date because we need to give people time to see a need to upgrade themselves, otherwise what are we going to do with the billions of perfectly good working phones being sold today? From what I understand, 4g isn't available on prepaid yet, so shutting off 3g this early would basically put the prepaid business out of business. The other thing is so far I've only seen a couple models of 4g phones, they'll have to do much better than that. Right now battery life in the 4g phones suck and why would I want a battery that sucks when we don't have 4g here yet?

what if I want a basic filp phone? Will they still be available with LTE? Will I be forced to upgrade to a touch screen with a required data plan? What if I don't want or need data? I could see the roll out of LTE completed by 2013 but some of us will still like using their old CDMA phones. The way it's going now, I still see a few CDMA phones available in 2013.

**Guest 171** · 05-20-2011, 09:50 PM

Originally Posted by gvillager

I think Malone is being misquoted in the article. It simply doesn't make sense to shut down 3g by the end of 2013. Too many people will still be using 3G devices, the replacement and labor costs associated with this transition would be prohibitive.

This article appeared yesterday on RCR:

http://www.rcrwireless.com/article/2...drivers-of-lte

I think we'll see 3G around till at least 2018 and maybe even 2025. Look how long they had to keep analog active due to FCC requirements. I suspect they'll have to go through a similar process for 3G.

Well I think expanding coverage and capacity on 3G CDMA they mean voice because 1X is technically 3G. The article says EVDO will shut down, but I don't think voice will.

**Frito** · 05-20-2011, 10:32 PM

2013??? Seems a little premature to me, but then again with the pace the wireless industry is at lately who knows... Look at what it took to sunset AMPS, I dont see 3g or EVDO just going away like that, maybe phased out. Look at IDEN on Nextel, even after compleatly destroying the Nextel Network, Sprint is keeping it around for 6 more years or so. We shall see....

**Guest 171** · 05-20-2011, 11:24 PM

Originally Posted by Frito

2013??? Seems a little premature to me, but then again with the pace the wireless industry is at lately who knows... Look at what it took to sunset AMPS, I dont see 3g or EVDO just going away like that, maybe phased out. Look at IDEN on Nextel, even after compleatly destroying the Nextel Network, Sprint is keeping it around for 6 more years or so. We shall see....

AMPS was required to be kept up for 911 and many M2M devices like Onstar and Alarm system's. There is no law for digital services, Verizon isn't incompetent like Sprint so they should be able to migrate networks in a timely fashion.

**Frito** · 05-20-2011, 11:48 PM

Originally Posted by locust43

AMPS was required to be kept up for 911 and many M2M devices like Onstar and Alarm system's. There is no law for digital services, Verizon isn't incompetent like Sprint so they should be able to migrate networks in a timely fashion.

Hehe, indeed my Friend....

**ben7337** · 05-21-2011, 01:05 AM

I still don't see this happening sooner than 2 years after verizon stops selling their last non 4G data plan phone at best. Anything sooner would be completely unreasonable, but even at that pace it would still be pretty fast, though I'm sure the added spectrum would be useful.

**hwertz** · 05-21-2011, 01:05 AM

Based on the gigaom article, he said nothing at all about "demolishing" the 3G network by 2013, he said was by 2013 they may sell a few phones that are 4G only (no 3G radio). I'd read previous articles where they have said they plan for their existing EVDO and 1X to stay up until at least 2018-2020 timeframe.

I do not see this as meaning every single existing channel will stay up though -- over time, more people will have LTE-capable phones, and it'd make sense to turn off some increasingly vacant 1X and EVDO channels to create a 850 or 1900 LTE channel. (4 1.25mhz channels would free up room for a 5mhz LTE channel.)

This does bring up a point, I'm VERY surprised VZW, AT&T, etc. didn't insist from the start the LTE phones and cards could not do 850 and 1900 LTE (since the antennas are obviously in there already for 3G use). They did not learn their lesson from the 1900-only GSM phones, and early CDMA phones that were sometimes 850 amps but cdma only at 1900?

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**Trocks797** · 05-21-2011, 01:47 AM

Good points yall. Let me say this.

1. Verizon is moving as fast or faster than they said earlier concerning their LTE roll out. I had heard that Louisville wouldnt see LTE until mid-2012 initially, yet today, it is live (despite STILL not being on the map). I know of another handful of places where LTE is live yet undocumented online.

2. The article did not say CDMA would be dead by 2013, just 3G. I think Malone is hoping to have all **DATA** traffic on LTE airwaves by 2013, allowing the CDMA infrastructure to be soley dedicated to phone calls (1X), further enhancing call quality, while simultaneously allowing more space for LTE.

3. Building on point 2, Malone has said previously that CDMA will not be dead until 2020, but that EVDO will not last that long for obvious reasons. With the entire footprint covered in sweet, sweet LTE by day 1 in 2014, there is literally NO reason for EVDO to remain online. The only sacrifice I see is legacy feature phones losing 3G. By 2014, everyone will have had an upgrade, and all new phones will support LTE.

An frankly, 1X is, by far, the very best solution for voice calls. Seriously, name one other technology that handles voice calls better. There is not one. So keeping 1X around for voice is a given. While VoLTE will provide additional clarity and various other enhancements, 1X is perfectly suited to handle the job for the forseeable future. Like I said, I think Malone was referring to data.

4. By 2014, the LTE airwaves will be pretty saturated. Killing EVDO for more LTE space will certainly help them stay ahead of the demand for fast data, assuming phones are out that support such service.

Either way, Verizon is being amazingly proactive as usual, and the future develops so fast on this network. It will be golden regardless.

**ben7337** · 05-21-2011, 02:13 AM

Originally Posted by Trocks797

Good points yall. Let me say this.

1. Verizon is moving as fast or faster than they said earlier concerning their LTE roll out. I had heard that Louisville wouldnt see LTE until mid-2012 initially, yet today, it is live (despite STILL not being on the map). I know of another handful of places where LTE is live yet undocumented online.

2. The article did not say CDMA would be dead by 2013, just 3G. I think Malone is hoping to have all **DATA** traffic on LTE airwaves by 2013, allowing the CDMA infrastructure to be soley dedicated to phone calls (1X), further enhancing call quality, while simultaneously allowing more space for LTE.

3. Building on point 2, Malone has said previously that CDMA will not be dead until 2020, but that EVDO will not last that long for obvious reasons. With the entire footprint covered in sweet, sweet LTE by day 1 in 2014, there is literally NO reason for EVDO to remain online. The only sacrifice I see is legacy feature phones losing 3G. By 2014, everyone will have had an upgrade, and all new phones will support LTE.

An frankly, 1X is, by far, the very best solution for voice calls. Seriously, name one other technology that handles voice calls better. There is not one. So keeping 1X around for voice is a given. While VoLTE will provide additional clarity and various other enhancements, 1X is perfectly suited to handle the job for the forseeable future. Like I said, I think Malone was referring to data.

4. By 2014, the LTE airwaves will be pretty saturated. Killing EVDO for more LTE space will certainly help them stay ahead of the demand for fast data, assuming phones are out that support such service.

Either way, Verizon is being amazingly proactive as usual, and the future develops so fast on this network. It will be golden regardless.

So what about the people who buy 3G phones a year from now in 2012? I mean I'd be willing to bet phones like the Droid X2 and Droid 3 and others will still be sold a year from now. Even if verizon has LTE everywhere that 3G is now by sometime in 2013, they will still inevitably have non 4G smartphones on their network not due for contract updates for a whole year or more, and I imagine they would be pissing off a lot of people by either saying "Sorry you will lose 3g data for the 2nd half of your contract unless you pony up $200 for a new smartphone or buy one at full retail" I very highly doubt they would offer free 4G smartphones to their customers whose contracts aren't up and who are stuck with 3G only phones after all.

Now if every phone available through Verizon is 4G before 2011 ends, and they start to kill 3G at the end of 2013, then I could see this being possible, but if that was the case verizon would literally have phones out for less than 6 months before replacing them. Either way this is a pretty easy way to test for when it is viable to even shut off 3g even going at a breakneck pace.

**Trocks797** · 05-21-2011, 02:19 AM

Originally Posted by ben7337

So what about the people who buy 3G phones a year from now in 2012? I mean I'd be willing to bet phones like the Droid X2 and Droid 3 and others will still be sold a year from now. Even if verizon has LTE everywhere that 3G is now by sometime in 2013, they will still inevitably have non 4G smartphones on their network not due for contract updates for a whole year or more, and I imagine they would be pissing off a lot of people by either saying "Sorry you will lose 3g data for the 2nd half of your contract unless you pony up $200 for a new smartphone or buy one at full retail" I very highly doubt they would offer free 4G smartphones to their customers whose contracts aren't up and who are stuck with 3G only phones after all.

Now if every phone available through Verizon is 4G before 2011 ends, and they start to kill 3G at the end of 2013, then I could see this being possible, but if that was the case verizon would literally have phones out for less than 6 months before replacing them. Either way this is a pretty easy way to test for when it is viable to even shut off 3g even going at a breakneck pace.

See, I see a dramatic shift in the way Verizon does phones in the near future. If they know they are killing 3G, they need to ensure that those that bought DX2's in 2011 and 2012 can get new phones. Honestly, I do think 3G will be dead sometime in 2014. However, everyone will be elligable. They need that extra spectrum. They have to have it. In the majority of the country, they only have 22Mhz, which is a lot today, sure, but as new phones (and the iP 6 in 2012) log onto that LTE network, 22Mhz will not be enough. 2014 will be a year that everyone who wants an LTE phone will have one, and those who just make calls can hang onto their flip phone.

**hwertz** · 05-21-2011, 04:03 AM

Originally Posted by ben7337

So what about the people who buy 3G phones a year from now in 2012? I mean I'd be willing to bet phones like the Droid X2 and Droid 3 and others will still be sold a year from now. Even if verizon has LTE everywhere that 3G is now by sometime in 2013, they will still inevitably have non 4G smartphones on their network not due for contract updates for a whole year or more

Yup, MetroPCS attempted a direct upgrade from 1X to LTE. Result? Too many people buying EVDO phones (which were running 1X-only on their network) killed the already not too quick 1x data speeds (despite them having *several* LTE phones out for longer than VZW). They had to start rolling EVDO recently.

Again, I don't think he's talking about ripping out EVDO by 2013. Although, to be honest.. as long as I can get an LTE android phone *with a keyboard*, and not some screwjob AT&T-like 2GB for $25 data plan, I'm happy. If not, I'll use my current phone and unlimited data at 1X speeds 8-)

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