I think you guys are on crack. There is no way Wind is going to be at 640-670k subs by the end of 2012.
They added about 20k subs per month in the last qtr which is their BIGGEST qtr (back to school to christmas) in addition to launching many new cities. You can't expect them to average 20k subs per month for the rest of the year. Just not going to happen.
I would expect that subs will likely average about 12k per month (425k/3years/12mo). Realistically, by end of 2012, wind will have about 550k subscribers. Possible a bit more because at or near the 3yr mark, many people will be coming off contracts.
My guess would that wind would target around 600k subs but will probably come in around 550k.
UNLESS, mobi eats it and all their subs migrate (or wind buys them out).
Either way, they are VERY far from their original target of 1.5mil subs after 3 years of operation.
I wonder what their growth plans/goals are (subscriber count) for 2012. Coming up to 3 years this December...
My guess is they will be anywhere between 640-670k.
Anticipate consolidation. Wind will reach 900k clients by the end of the year and there will be 1 fewer competitor for the Christmas season.
Crunching the numbers, Wind is borderline profitable if they put a full halt on expansion and customer aquisition campaigns (heavy advertising). $90M/year for debt payments and $60M/year for ongoing operations. That should be close enough to let them take on additional debt load to buy competition that consistently forces them to lower their pricing.
If they can boost their RPU by $5/month ($25M/year) by eliminating competition (like Mobilicity) they can offer up to a $250M premium on their bid.
Somehow I think Mobilicity would take the value of their assets plus $150M at this point.
I think you guys are on crack. There is no way Wind is going to be at 640-670k subs by the end of 2012.
I'm going to have an xtachx moment and predict 800 000 subs by the end of year, with more if they buy out a competitor. Why?
Across Canada we have had a very mild winter, so the frost will come out of the ground very quickly (in places that get it) and construction of new towers will happen sooner than usual. We also know that Wind is going to aggressively expand this year (Halifax, Winnipeg, Windsor, etc) so getting that head start really helps them.
You are also basing your assumptions on the new markets not meaning anything to subscriber growth, which isn't the case. The one thing that the new markets all have in common is that Wind has no competition there - Mobi and PM don't, and in some cases can't exist. There are a lot of people that would jump at the HMP in those areas because they've never had any alternative to the Big 3 in those markets. Unless the Big 3 create yet another flanker brand to compete then the market belongs to Wind, which is huge.
Mobi helps a lot in the areas that they coexist. Now that they can't lowball the market and offer their dirty cheap plans then customers will naturally gravitate towards Wind.
I'm talking to a lot of people now who know about Wind and what they do, and quite a few of them are willing to give them a try once their contract expires. That was different then even 6 months ago when very few people I spoke with knew anything about Wind.
I don't think they'll hit 1.5 million subs this year, but it's highly likely for next year.
You've got to remember; they were completely handcuffed while the court thing was going on as well. They didn't spend a nickel on expansion, marketing or anything. Also, people were scared to sign up not knowing whether they were going to get shut down or not. Hopefully, that is pretty much behind them now.
Growth will come a lot faster now for a few reasons: 1) subs are coming off three year contracts, 2) new markets - more potential customers, 3) bigger network (easier to sell "we have coverage in 15 markets" than "we have coverage in five") 4) if they do merge with Mobi they would have a pretty solid network in 5 major cities. While there is obviously a lot of tower duplication, it would seem a combined network would fill in each others holes quite nicely 5) Much better brand awareness. This helps in two ways - obviously if the customer has never heard of you, they can't use you - but also, it takes awhile for customers to feel comfortable with your brand.
Bottom line, look for growth to accelerate significantly from what they've been getting - but nowhere close to 1.5 million subs.
I think you guys are on crack. There is no way Wind is going to be at 640-670k subs by the end of 2012.
They added about 20k subs per month in the last qtr which is their BIGGEST qtr (back to school to christmas) in addition to launching many new cities. You can't expect them to average 20k subs per month for the rest of the year. Just not going to happen.
How about when they add more cities?
Every city you add, increases the RATE that you accumulate customers. We're going to be looking at Barrie and Peterborough *any minute now*, bunch of rumors about winterpeg and halifax.... It will only go UP from 20k/month.
I think Winnipeg may be a strong market. Considering the Big 3 3G coverage there seems just a little larger size of a home zone, Wind could be a viable and better priced option.
Personal Plans:
Plan 1: Wind Mobile $35 All In The Family 2011 - Unlimited: Canada-Wide Calling, Data, Text and Picture Messaging, Global Text, CID, CF, CC, VM
Plan 2: Wind Mobile $20 HAITF Infinite Laptop - Unlimited Data
WIND is no longer aiming for 1.5 million customers. Apparently the last town hall meet they had they have revised targets to 1 million customers due to the legal issues they have had and the inability to get a *fair* cell site sharing agreement with an existing provider. Now who knows what fair means in this case and it is up for debate as Mobilicity has been partially successful with Bell, but how feasible that is, is up in the air.
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