Spectrum auction rules announcement

[Tendenzi]

Is that Urkle? That's the BEST!!!!!

you know it.

[keyzink]

The new entrants have yet to show any signs of business impact on the incumbents, both in ARPU and subscriber growth.
Regulatory bodies have investigated the incumbents time and time again. It's no cake walk to be them I'm sure.

And please don't defend WIND to me, I'm not arguing anything other then, if WIND could have 7 million subscribers right now and a nationwide network, don't bet on anything close to the plans they have today. WIND's competitive plans work only because they're small and inferior to the market. The more easier it becomes for them to acquire subscribers and their money, the more the plans push how much they can squeeze out of them.

I speak mainly because of what is happening in the US wireless industry right now. Plans are on the up, the unlimited data is a big issue where all providers are putting caps, throttling and limits on, and it reminded me. That any wireless feature that was new and fresh was once free, or very cheap, until people became addicted or expected it as the norm. Then it became an add-on, expensive feature, or whatever. Just look at voicemail, callerID, texting, free after 6pm, billing by the seconds, etc. etc.

All wireless carriers to me act like drug dealers. Get you hooked, and then keep getting you f@#$ed up every month after you're addicted.

To take your US example, they have two giants and two players playing catch-up. This gives sprint and t-mobile an incentive to induce competition in pricing and add-ons. Note that they are the ones who have unlimited data plans.

We need such a smaller player to survive here. If wind ever reaches 7 million customers, it'll be because they offered better value than the incumbents. To stay there or grow, they would need to continue to offer something different to the competition. That is how the free market works. Not the way it is right now, where the big 3 are comfortable with their position and each have almost equal share of the pie. Even Verizon and AT&T go hammer tongs at each other.

[millergd]

Not going to happen and here's why; if you're interested in buying someone out, you partner with the BIG guy and buy out the little one. Not the other way around.

Further, if you're a foreign investor, who do you invest in? Little Mob close to floundering? Or big Wind?

Until yesterday, that was generally true. But the rules just changed, and the previous ones were thrown out the window. As for small guys buying out big ones, the question comes down to the path of least resistance.

Here are the paths:

--Mobilicity: dealing with a chairman (John Bitove) very close to the Conservative party

--Wind: dealing with a Russian parent company and an publicly antagonistic CEO

If you were a foreign owner looking to send your working capital into a highly regulated Canadian industry, which path would you choose for a buyout?

Money (and political connections) talks.

~millergd~

[boron228]

Not the way it is right now, where the big 3 are comfortable with their position and each have almost equal share of the pie.

What? Rogers has 2 million more subscribers than the next market leader Bell.

How is that equal?

[Tendenzi]

We need such a smaller player to survive here. If wind ever reaches 7 million customers, it'll be because they offered better value than the incumbents. To stay there or grow, they would need to continue to offer something different to the competition. That is how the free market works. Not the way it is right now, where the big 3 are comfortable with their position and each have almost equal share of the pie. Even Verizon and AT&T go hammer tongs at each other.

I don't like Canada's business practice as a whole. You just summed up every major industry problem. I agree with this not opposed to it. But then there is the bitter reality we all face, which I feel is that in the end we will be back to a 2008 level of wireless competition with no competition. Just my opinion.

[Tendenzi]

Until yesterday, that was generally true. But the rules just changed, and the previous ones were thrown out the window. As for small guys buying out big ones, the question comes down to the path of least resistance.

Here are the paths:

--Mobilicity: dealing with a chairman (John Bitove) very close to the Conservative party

--Wind: dealing with a Russian parent company and an publicly antagonistic CEO

If you were a foreign owner looking to send your working capital into a highly regulated Canadian industry, which path would you choose for a buyout?

Money (and political connections) talks.

~millergd~

I hope mobilicity flourishes in the next 14 months. I'd like to see them rebrand too, their current branding stinks.

[gaia10239]

Collusion is illegal but try to prove that in court... I have sat through company quarterly meetings where it was hinted what the industry was doing and how 'player(s)' that weren't towing the line were chastised...

What you're describing would be considered "collusion" and it is very much illegal in Canada. LINK

Has WIND taught you nothing yet? Prices will most certainly go up, and local calling areas will shrink, features will be removed and charged for adding back on, and phones will be subsidized with a bigger mark-up on non-contract pricing to encourage the lock-in.

WIND is a great accelerated example of how the industry had to transform when facing the challenges of simply their own debt.

Sent from my SGH-T959 using HowardForums

[Greg111r]

I don't like Canada's business practice as a whole. You just summed up every major industry problem. I agree with this not opposed to it. But then there is the bitter reality we all face, which I feel is that in the end we will be back to a 2008 level of wireless competition with no competition. Just my opinion.

So what do others think will play out here?
1) Wind Mobi acquisition.
2) Then perhaps Wind bowing out at the 5 yr mark and selling?
I guess I want to determine, how many subs does Wind need by year 5 for them to still think they would continue to offer services in the Canadian market?

[live_strong]

The new entrants have yet to show any signs of business impact on the incumbents, both in ARPU and subscriber growth.

the news just quoted a 10% decrease wireless prices since the new entrants came into play.
that said, the cost savings are offset by an increase in services (ie data plans).

[FTW]

There are four blocks worth bidding on for 700 MHz spectrum times 14 licenses across the country. Bell, Telus and Rogers will, no doubt, attempt to purchase their max ie one block per license. That leaves just one block left for everyone else. In Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec, Sasktel, MTS and Videotron will certainly bid which means the remaining 10 or 11 licenses outside of those provinces can be fought over my Public, Mobilicity and Wind Mobile (and possibly a new new entrant). And don't completely rule Shaw out in the West or Eastlink in Atlantic Canada.

The auction is expected to generate $4 billion which means, in a best case scenario, a company like Wind -- if it muscled out everyone else, could grab 14 licenses to become national at the cost of another $1 billion or so in spectrum fees. Given that it is growing by 200,000 customers a year, generates $26.40 per user per month, and is currently already in debt well past $1 billion ... how does their business model make them more attractive for additional foreign investment capital? At current rates, it is taking in $135 million annually and has to pay its costs (staff, network, retail, capital, maintenance, interest).

It's no surprise that Wind's position recently has been "give us the spectrum for free". I'm not sure taxpayers like the idea of handing over $1 billion or more of spectrum, for free, to an already very, very wealthy Egyptian family.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using HowardForums

[Mr Mystery]

What? Rogers has 2 million more subscribers than the next market leader Bell.

How is that equal?

Why do you keep creating new accounts chloride? Banned again?

[Tendenzi]

the news just quoted a 10% decrease wireless prices since the new entrants came into play.
that said, the cost savings are offset by an increase in services (ie data plans).

LOL. The whole "value" proposition comes into play when discussions like this come up. If we're still paying more today than 3 years ago, but get more value out of it, even if it's added features like data, the carriers are all bumping up their revenues while giving us the illusion of savings.

I suppose it's a better time today than in 2008 if someone wanted to get some minutes, nights and weekends and a small text plan. But the expectations of being connected through data have accelerated beyond belief. In 4 years, we went from wanting to use wifi exclusively to avoid data plans, to just believing data magically comes to the phone and their shouldn't be an added cost. (generally I mean, the mindsets in consumers are incredibly naive with cellphones).

[canadiancow]

Why do you keep creating new accounts chloride? Banned again?

Chlorine is so 2011. Boron is so much cooler!

[Mr Mystery]

Chlorine is so 2011. Boron is so much cooler!

Lol, true that!

[Willys]

Lol, true that!

Him and LA must be twins, both are morons.


Sent from my Nexus S using HowardForums