"Should Microsoft give up?"

[TDANJ]

Windows Phone's many problems: Should Microsoft give up?


Fortune described the Lumia 900 as a “sexy, award-winning smartphone is going on sale Sunday at half the price of the iPhone, and it’s launching on a blazing fast 4G network.”

“What’s the catch?” they asked. “Two things: The phone, called the Lumia 900, is made by Nokia — and it’s running Microsoft’s Windows Phone software.”

But since its launch, it has already suffered a data cut-off bug which will put off a vast percent of the consumer market, and business customers especially, where data is the lifeblood of mission-critical operations. It’s struggling with poor market share and hampered by an image problem in the wake of attention towards iOS and Android rivals.

To apologise for the data bug, Nokia was quick to hand owners $100 in AT&T credit, effectively negating the price of the handset itself.

Despite it being only a software fix, to know that the thought to be tens of thousands who have already bought the device being without data is about as useful as a smartphone with no battery. It’s a critical mechanism for any smartphone, and without it, one is left with mostly an expensive paperweight.

But let’s say the Lumia 900 is the saving grace to Windows Phone. It could succeed, and it should. But the Microsoft–Nokia team left many wondering if the two had rushed into the smartphone market they were late to in the first place.

Because it’s previous attempts to bring out the other Lumia devices, thought of generally to be ‘less exciting’ than the Lumia 900, a device many were holding out for, Microsoft–Nokia have put all of their eggs in one basket. If the Lumia 900 fails, the joint venture may lose what little market share it has and be forced to start again from scratch.

comScore’s figures over the rolling averages for the past three months show that Windows Phone has dropped in market share. Considering how little it had in the first place, it rings bells of bad news:

Sep.–Dec. 2011: From 5.6 percent to 4.7 percent — a drop of –0.9 percent.
Oct.–Jan. 2012: From 5.4 percent to 4.4 percent — a drop of –1.0 percent.
Nov.–Feb. 2012: From 5.2 percent to 3.9 percent — a drop of –1.3 percent.

The figures keep dropping, and currently only sits behind Symbian which holds its ground at 1.5 percent. With so few users, the revenue streams available for application developers is what is turning those developers away from Windows Phone towards iOS or Android.

Apps and games are what make smartphones ’smart’. Microsoft’s Windows Marketplace is doing well, but is heavily trailing behind the major players in the two-horse race of iOS and Android.

One is not quick to disparage the growth trajectory of apps in the Windows Marketplace, however. As sister site ZDNet Asia reports:

“…the 50,000 app mark was reached on Dec. 27 last year, the 60,000 mark on Jan. 22, and the 70,000 mark on Feb. 23.”

It’s a valiant effort, and should the growth continue, it could reach the 100,000 milestone mark by the second quarter.

But compared with half a million apps and games in the Apple App Store and growing by thousands per day, and Google Play — the new name for the Android Market — has an approximate 480,000 apps and games from its near half-million mark as of February.

ZDNet Asia adds:

“According to the blog, 67 percent of the apps in the Windows Phone Marketplace are free, 10 percent are paid with a free trial, and 22 percent are paid.”

There is no doubt that the Windows Marketplace has at least a foot in the door, but developers will not write apps or games for a platform deemed unsafe or unlikely to generate revenue from a lack of users.

While the Microsoft–Nokia venture does not limit the growth of Windows Phone, as HTC and Samsung both have devices running the Microsoft mobile operating system, but both HTC and Samsung also have their hands in other platform pies, notably Android.

While Nokia holds onto Symbian as its fallback option, Android generates the most revenue while treating Windows Phone as an incubator for potential growth. If it doesn’t succeed, the two still have a strong ecosystem they can fall back to.

Nokia has two choices. It can either carry on with Microsoft with the hope that Windows Phone generates an unlikely buzz, or it can focus on its own strategy of reaching out to the wider European and U.S. smartphone market, while at the same time maintaining its growth in the developing regions of the world. Or, it can ditch Windows Phone and jump to Android as the only likely candidate for mobile phone software, or it can carry on with Symbian, which was given a new lease of business life this week, reports ZDNet’s Mary Jo Foley.

Microsoft doesn’t have much choice. It’s either holding a gun to Nokia’s head by keeping it technologically hostage, or the two are hoping that their two respective ailing smartphone businesses can somehow join forces and make one ordinary, healthy business.

While two negatives added don’t always make a negative, unfortunately two poops just land you with one giant poop.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/btl/window...-give-up/73126

[KingBuzzo]

No, but hopefully the rehashed, regurgitated, and mis-informed negative rags give-up...

[migo]

comScore's stats are useless, because they conflate Windows Mobile with Windows Phone. Surprised that ZD Net editors are that stupid to not catch that.

[Conan Edogawa]

Personally, I find it hard to take seriously any article that uses the word "poop" twice. Was that article supposed to be journalism or trolling?

[KingBuzzo]

neither, its ZDnet!

[GeminiIII]

"Should Microsoft give up?"

LOL
is the grass green?

[KingBuzzo]

Who cries for the trolls...

[supermanx5]

Microsoft knows its going to take time. It took Android a while to gain this popularity (from the iPhone) and that's back when there weren't any other major competitors and the iPhone was exclusive to AT&T so it had a much larger market to target. Unfortunately for WP coming late to the market, it doesn't have that same advantage and is a little behind in terms of features (it is a new OS after all). I think a big part of why people aren't make the switch to Windows Phone is

1. There aren't enough apps. Most the apps I use are there, but some aren't. That has to change before someone is going to make the switch from iOS and Android (but not if they're a first time smartphone user, which is what WP is targeting with their lower end devices).

2. Their phones just aren't there yet. While the OS doesn't need a dual-core or quad-core with a gig of RAM, WP7 doesn't offer high res screens like iOS and especially Android. Plus, people want to "know" that they have a powerful phone, even if they don't "need" it.

Hopefully, being a WP7 fan, this changes (at least point 2) with Apollo and coming updates. WP7 is going to introduce higher res screens, hopefully more powerful processors (like the S4, maybe), and by that time, hopefully it has more of the apps we use. With a big company like Microsoft backing it, and with its ties to XBLive and Windows 8, I think Windows Phone is here to stay. I personally love the OS, just would like to see the two previous points addressed.

[Sepurb]

I for one would be saddened if Microsoft were to give up. I'm a fan of iOS and I am disappointed in pre-ICS Android, I feel like WP7 would be the most appealing OS I'd try. I have never used a WP device but I have owned a Windows Mobile 6.5 device I believe and that was a rather enjoyable experience.

[Volaris]

I think it will be better seen in a year whether Windows Phone takes off or not. With the launch of Windows 8 later this year, that will be the true test as to whether consumers and developers adopt, like, and enjoy Metro. It will be seen in Windows Phone's marketshare and Windows 8 adoption (sales of new computers, and importantly, upgrades to the new OS).

I think a big factor affecting Windows Phone adoption is that it's not an iOS clone. Android looked very similar to iPhone's UI, so people easily adopted it. That's why I think there's hope that once people play with Windows 8, they'll be encouraged to play with Windows Phone. And if they don't like Metro, then Microsoft is ****ed.

[ivaz]

Microsoft is all in and Nokia is all in. If Windows 8 flops, and by flops I mean in the consumer space we know businesses won't adopt immediately, then Microsoft as we know it is doomed for good. This is the most radical shift since 95.

I don't think it is possible though. They are firmly anchored in the living room with the Xbox, and Windows 8 looks like an Xbox extender to most people. Give SoHo users Office for free with Windows RT tablets and they are naturally going to want to extend that with a phone that works the same way. Microsoft has come out of nowhere and captured the 3 screens without even really trying.

[mch]

Microsoft knows its going to take time. It took Android a while to gain this popularity (from the iPhone) and that's back when there weren't any other major competitors and the iPhone was exclusive to AT&T so it had a much larger market to target. Unfortunately for WP coming late to the market, it doesn't have that same advantage and is a little behind in terms of features (it is a new OS after all). I think a big part of why people aren't make the switch to Windows Phone is

1. There aren't enough apps. Most the apps I use are there, but some aren't. That has to change before someone is going to make the switch from iOS and Android (but not if they're a first time smartphone user, which is what WP is targeting with their lower end devices).

Quite right here, at least for me. The lack of apps or equivalents to apps that I use routinely keeps WP7 from being a contender for my business.

[Furry Atom]

"Android generates the most revenue"

That's funny, because in Q1 2012 every single vendor except Apple, Samsung and HTC was not profitable. And Apple doesn't use Android.
http://www.androidauthority.com/samsung-apple-99-percent-profit-q1-2012-83002/
But I wouldn't expect any sort of fact checking from ZDNet.

[ALSHugh]

If they don't fix the following three things in the next year, yes:

1) Windows app store needs to compete, no exceptions.

2) A ton of small features need to be added, such as more varied themes and better APN configuration.

3) They need to get cutting edge devices on the market that don't have serious issues.

And that's just to remain in the loop with Samsung and Apple. They still need something to set the phone apart (other than Metro), and that could be Windows 8 integration.

Because calling a device that has almost no compatibility with Windows 7, Windows Phone 7, should be a lesson in how to lose your marketing job.

I like my Windows Phone, but it is less useful than iPhone or Android. As a result, my HTC HD7 spends most of its time in a box.