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Thread: World Standard around the corner

  1. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by polonius
    iMode works because DoCoMo takes a very SMALL cut
    Out of interest, has iMode really taken off anywhere besides Japan? In the UK O2 launched it recently but tbh no one could really care less - most people probably won't realise it's any different to WAP (operators here have an annoying propensity to brand ("O2 Active" "Vodafone Live!" "Orange World" their WAP services, despite the fact the only difference between them is they have a different portal - so they'll just think it's O2's new name for O2 Active) - but, in the UK it arrived after WAP has matured to the point that most of the services on iMode already have their own WAP sites or if they are subscription, sections in operators' portals, so maybe it would be different if it had arrived earlier?

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    Quote Originally Posted by voodoofish
    Out of interest, has iMode really taken off anywhere besides Japan?
    iMode hasn't really taken off in Europe because there was an extra set of hands trying to get their hands in the cookie jar.

    DoCoMo collects 9% commission on the imode universe. That 9% has to come from somewhere --- the carriers, the content providers, the application developers...

    In Japan, DoCoMo is also the carrier --- so one less set of hands in the cookie jar.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by samab
    iMode hasn't really taken off in Europe because there was an extra set of hands trying to get their hands in the cookie jar.

    DoCoMo collects 9% commission on the imode universe. That 9% has to come from somewhere --- the carriers, the content providers, the application developers...

    In Japan, DoCoMo is also the carrier --- so one less set of hands in the cookie jar.
    9% is DoCoMo's MAXIMUM commission -- on many services, their cut is as low as 2%

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    i don't think this vision of 4g is going to make it anywhere, it lacks the support of the two most important groups in the world when it comes to developing mobile standards, the gsma and cdg. there is also a lack of handset, chipset, and network equipment manufacturers in that list of companies.
    My awareness flows through the rivers of existence which pulse with the vibrance of my thoughts.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by polonius
    9% is DoCoMo's MAXIMUM commission -- on many services, their cut is as low as 2%
    The exact percentage of DoCoMo's commission is not important --- the important point is that there is now an extra set of hands in the cookie jar, and nobody likes that.

    Nokia's Preminet is the exact marketing universe as imode and brew. And they encounter big oppositions from the carriers. Quote:"It had been accused of stealing money from the operators; it went away and developed the new model."

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/04...a_brew_battle/

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    Quote Originally Posted by ImmerStark
    i don't think this vision of 4g is going to make it anywhere, it lacks the support of the two most important groups in the world when it comes to developing mobile standards, the gsma and cdg. there is also a lack of handset, chipset, and network equipment manufacturers in that list of companies.
    Remember that the same group of companies announced that they would formed a group for "super 3G" in 2005. Nothing but hype.

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    The operators have to get to the point where they have at least a billion people using 3G phones for things they could not have done with their 2G phones before they start talking about 4G.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by samab
    The exact percentage of DoCoMo's commission is not important --- the important point is that there is now an extra set of hands in the cookie jar, and nobody likes that.

    Nokia's Preminet is the exact marketing universe as imode and brew. And they encounter big oppositions from the carriers. Quote:"It had been accused of stealing money from the operators; it went away and developed the new model."

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/04...a_brew_battle/

    You can have as many hands in there as you want, along as the actual content developer/provider gets at least 90% of it. If the remaining 10% gets split 18 ways or 2 ways won't make a difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by polonius
    You can have as many hands in there as you want, along as the actual content developer/provider gets at least 90% of it. If the remaining 10% gets split 18 ways or 2 ways won't make a difference.
    And if the carriers don't want to part any of that remaining 10%, then you don't have a business model.

    There are legitimate business/financial reasons why imode is a failure everywhere outside Japan. There are legitimate business/financial reasons why Nokia is back to the drawing boards with their own Preminet.

    Most of the problems are not technological --- they are business models.

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    Quote Originally Posted by samab
    And if the carriers don't want to part any of that remaining 10%, then you don't have a business model.

    There are legitimate business/financial reasons why imode is a failure everywhere outside Japan. There are legitimate business/financial reasons why Nokia is back to the drawing boards with their own Preminet.

    Most of the problems are not technological --- they are business models.

    It only took you a few months, but you finally posted something that makes sense.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by polonius
    It only took you a few months, but you finally posted something that makes sense.
    I have always made sense. I have been pointing out the business model problem for the itunes phone for the last year.

    All the talk about how wonderful beauty contest and technogical harmonization is. Have you seen the the EU commission positions lately? A central system where carriers can buy and sell spectrum. Technology neutral auctions. Anti-trust roaming charges. Possible SMS tax. EU commissioners talking about the US doing the right thing with the break up of AT&T in 1984. Ireland going from beauty contest to auctions.

    Basically everything that you have said about what's wrong with the US model --- Europe is thinking about embracing all of them.

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by samab
    I have always made sense. I have been pointing out the business model problem for the itunes phone for the last year.

    All the talk about how wonderful beauty contest and technogical harmonization is. Have you seen the the EU commission positions lately? A central system where carriers can buy and sell spectrum. Technology neutral auctions. Anti-trust roaming charges. Possible SMS tax. EU commissioners talking about the US doing the right thing with the break up of AT&T in 1984. Ireland going from beauty contest to auctions.

    Basically everything that you have said about what's wrong with the US model --- Europe is thinking about embracing all of them.
    I also have long agreed that you are right about the iTunes model (also one of my pet annoyances). But whilst I agree with you that the price gouging of roamers is a huge problem, the EU is hardly following the USA on this issue. The EU is threatening fines, legal action, investigations and use of injunctive powers to force the prices down (in response, the carriers are reducing prices, and saying "see! they're going down by themselves! leave us alone!"). The USA's FCC has done nothing, as they always do, which is why US fixed and mobile carriers have pricing policies that amount to highway robbery. I was at CDG airport a few weeks back and decided to be smart, avoid roaming charges, and make a phone call from a pay phone. I didn't want to buy a €10 phone card, so I found a phone that would take credit cards. It instructed you to dial a number, which put you through to an "operator" with a heavy American accent, who asked for my credit card number. I asked him the rate for a call to Sweden. His response? Thirty US dollars a minute! Anyone even attempting something like that in Europe would be shut down, prosecuted and locked up within days, but because these guys operate under the benign neglect of the FCC, they get away with it. Roaming rates paid by Europeans are expected to be cut in half over the next 12 months, and keep being reduced from there. In the USA, Cingular and T-mobile seem to still be looking for ways to raise them.

    The USA also did, however, get carrier selection right, something not all European countries did. UK and Germany did well; Sweden and Poland, amongst others, are a disaster, with the incumbent still controlling 98% of the market (however, same problem applies to your North American neighbour, Mexico). It's something I argue with regulators about all the time, and frequently use the USA as an example of how things should be done with respect to CPS.

    Your problem is that you see everything through an ideological lens, and want to export the American approach, right or wrong, everywhere. I look at what works, and select from the best, whether its American, European or Asian. The fact the USA got CPS right doesn't change the fact that they got regulation of pricing wrong, and appear to be on the verge of messing up WiFi. The American carriers are fighting tooth and nail to prevent the establishment of municipal WiFi networks, whilst European cities are deploying them left and right, once again establishing a lead the Americans will likely never recapture. And it's the French, not the Americans, who are taking steps to ensure the iTunes desist from exclusionary, anti-competitive business practices, not the Americans. Setting standards, encouraging competition, and protecting consumers is good. Allowing proprietary standards, putting roadblocks to competition and allowing operators to do whatever they can get away with is bad.
    Last edited by polonius; 07-06-2006 at 12:00 PM.

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by polonius
    I was at CDG airport a few weeks back and decided to be smart, avoid roaming charges, and make a phone call from a pay phone. I didn't want to buy a €10 phone card, so I found a phone that would take credit cards. It instructed you to dial a number, which put you through to an "operator" with a heavy American accent, who asked for my credit card number. I asked him the rate for a call to Sweden. His response? Thirty US dollars a minute!

    Your problem is that you see everything through an ideological lens, and want to export the American approach, right or wrong, everywhere. I look at what works, and select from the best, whether its American, European or Asian. The fact the USA got CPS right doesn't change the fact that they got regulation of pricing wrong, and appear to be on the verge of messing up WiFi. The American carriers are fighting tooth and nail to prevent the establishment of municipal WiFi networks, whilst European cities are deploying them left and right, once again establishing a lead the Americans will likely never recapture.

    And it's the French, not the Americans, who are taking steps to ensure the iTunes desist from exclusionary, anti-competitive business practices, not the Americans. Setting standards, encouraging competition, and protecting consumers is good. Allowing proprietary standards, putting roadblocks to competition and allowing operators to do whatever they can get away with is bad.
    Don't blame the FCC. The airport owns a monopoly in what goes on inside their building. It means that you have to use their automatic bank teller that charges you $5 for a service charge. It means that cell phone carriers have to pay a king's ransom to install repeaters inside the airport.

    http://www.findarticles.com/p/articl..._4/ai_94406944

    It means that the airport can install their own pay phone and charge you an arm and a leg. Whatever the airport charges has nothing to do with this debate.

    No, you look at the whole thing through ideological lens, not me.

    The difference is that the demand-and-supply model ---- allows screw-ups in their model. If one carrier (i.e. NextWave) who went insane and spent themselves into bankruptcy --- that's part of the model. Or if another carrier overpaid and decided to leave the market --- that's also allow in the model. That is supply and demand.

    However, if the Swedish government hand-picked 4 carriers through a beauty contest --- by looking at which carriers promise to spend more on infrastructure and hire more workers --- then if 2 carriers decided to leave the market (one carrier left before they ever started any deployment and vodafone decided to leave the market after their deployment) --- your beauty contest model doesn't allow this to happen.

    That's the real difference. Failure is part of the supply-and-demand model. The insane European 3G auctions and its telecom bust --- can be explained as part of the model. My arguments CANNOT be ideological --- precisely because it's within the model. Failure is NOT part of the beauty contest model.

    Do you really think that the European governments really care about municipal wifi? They are the same governments that allows mobile carriers to block VoIP-via-WiFi/Cellular.

    Do you really think that the French government would ever allow Google to set up municipal wifi networks in their country? They hate everything Google. The french government is setting up their own version of search engine, their own version of book scanning, their own version of world map.

    On the surface, sure European governments not stopping municipal wifi deployment. But if you look at the issue more deeply, they are even worst than the US government. QoS looks pretty good against the backdrop of draconian data blocking.

    The french law on itunes --- a toothless tiger that was watered down beyond any usefulness.

  14. #29
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    Polonius,
    I agree with you that the next move will be to WiMAX/WiFi VOIP bundled with GMS/GPRS/etc. I doubt that the idea of proprietary VOIP from a cellular service provider will catch on, since it will almost certainly cost more than the Skype/Vonage options which exist today. My UTS 1000F WiFi phone works fine.

    I expect that we will see some major changes in this industry over the next 5 years.

    Samab,
    Many airports are now providing free WiFi for their customers. Unfortunately some airports seem to have the attitude that customers are theirs to abuse.
    Last edited by Bugwart; 07-06-2006 at 03:26 PM.
    Bugwart

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bugwart
    I doubt that the idea of proprietary VOIP from a cellular service provider will catch on, since it will almost certainly cost more than the Skype/Vonage options which exist today. My UTS 1000F WiFi phone works fine.

    Many airports are now providing free WiFi for their customers. Unfortunately some airports seem to have the attitude that customers are theirs to abuse.
    It's not a matter of whether VoIP-over-cellular will catch on. Nobody is going to develop new generations of ansi cores and map cores anymore, so the mobile carriers will have to migrate to VoIP-over-cellular sooner or later.

    Have you seen Vonage stock price today? It closed at $7.87 today --- it has lost 54% of its value since its IPO. There is no viable business model for 3rd party VoIP services yet.

    It is not really free, isn't it? Many airport doesn't allow individual airlines to deploy their own wifi system and requires individual airlines to use the airport's own wifi system (at a king's ransom).

    And then your airline ticket has a $10 landing fee, $15 administration fee, another $10 for 9/11 security. Then you have to pay $20 for parking, $5 for automatic bank teller machine and god know how much to use their public payphone.

    None of this airport stuff has anything to do with how American and European governments differ on spectrum policies.

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