Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread: There are rumours Shaw might be interested in wireless again

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    1,102
    Device(s)
    Nokia Lumia 920
    Carrier(s)
    Fido
    Feedback Score
    0

    There are rumours Shaw might be interested in wireless again

    There are rumours that Shaw might be interested in wireless again. From what I can tell they never did sell their AWS spectrum, despite striking a deal with Rogers. The government sounded reluctant to let the sale proceed, and that's where the story seems to end, as far as I can tell, with the proposed sale neither going through nor being cancelled. The government stopped the sale of Mobilicity to Telus, citing that the spectrum was intended for a new entrant so couldn't be sold to an incumbent, so it seems unlikelly Shaw's results would be any different. The government's done nothing but step up its war on the major wireless TelCos, after all.

    Shaw's initial post-auction sense was that the risks of building their network weren't worth the reward, especially since they thought they may be able to sell the spectrum to Rogers. The new calculation could be that if they can't sell it at a high price to an incumbent, it may be better to actually do something with it. Especially with new rules that favour shotgun-wedding-style consolidation amongst the newer entrants (Mobilicity, Wind, and/or Videotron), and Shaw may be able to purchase a company that's already done a lot of the work, and get it at a firesale price.

    Another possible end-game is Shaw being permitted to sell their spectrum to a merged Mobilicity/Wind/Videotron.

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Steven Hurdle; 07-08-2014 at 12:19 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Cascadia
    Posts
    82
    Device(s)
    Blackberry Z10
    Carrier(s)
    T-mobile
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Hurdle View Post
    There are rumours that Shaw might be interested in wireless again. From what I can tell they never did sell their AWS spectrum, despite striking a deal with Rogers.
    I may have started those rumours, and it is just pure speculation (along with some business and logistical analysis)...

    I did some more searching and it seems that while Shaw still owns the AWS spectrum they bought in 2008, the sale of it to Rogers is still pending, partially waiting on govt approval.
    If the sale is approved, that would create a large problem for the scenarios I previously posted. However, I do not see how this could be approved, after witnessing the (I would say drastic) punitive measures threatened against Telus for its bid of Mobilicity. If it is approved, Telus definitely has grounds for a massive lawsuit and complaint.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Hurdle View Post
    Shaw's initial post-auction sense was that the risks of building their network weren't worth the reward, especially since they thought they may be able to sell the spectrum to Rogers. The new calculation could be that if they can't sell it at a high price to an incumbent, it may be better to actually do something with it. Especially with new rules that favour shotgun-wedding-style consolidation amongst the newer entrants (Mobilicity, Wind, and/or Videotron), and Shaw may be able to purchase a company that's already done a lot of the work, and get it at a firesale price.
    Shaw may very well start building a network, but only if it has at least one financially capable partner (Wind and Mobilicity don't count as they have no money to help build a network). Videotron would be a required partner for Shaw to start a buildout due to their low-band spectrum. Eastlink and/or a strong third-party financier would be strong potentials to join the partnership as well, on the basis of providing capital, cutting risk, and providing a complementary network in the case of Eastlink.

    Shaw, or a partnership they are part of would buy Mobilicity and/or Wind to provide an immediate customer base, some cash flow, and reduce the need for an immediate customer acquisition focus.
    I see no impediments from the govt for Shaw to buy Wind/Mobilicity other than showing they will actually build a network.

    Quote Originally Posted by Steven Hurdle View Post
    Another possible end-game is Shaw being permitted to sell their spectrum to a merged Mobilicity/Wind/Videotron.
    If Shaw spectrum sale is denied and they decide not to join the wireless game Videotron, Eastlink, a financier, or some combination thereof would likely buy the spectrum from Shaw.


    The whole idea of a fourth national carrier centers around Videotron as they have the necessary 700mhz to make it work and are the only non-Big 3 to have spectrum, much less a network, in Quebec. Videotron will partner with a financier, at a minimum, or financier/Shaw/EastlinkWind/Mobilicity at a maximum.

    Eastlink is not as essential as Videotron(Wind also has spectrum in Atlantic provinces), but is very important as they already have a solid network in NS and PEI (including LTE), as well as resources in the west that could help with things like backhaul to towers, not to mention possible service bundles like they have in NS.

    Shaw isn't necessary, nor is their spectrum, but with their spectrum, the possibility exists of large contiguous blocks for easy HSPA/LTE deployment and minimizes the necessity of the AWS-3 auction in the west. Shaw, if they decided to join the partnership, could like Eastlink, provide backhaul and bundles, creating more efficiencies and customer value.

    Mobilicity and Wind are only necessary if Shaw's spectrum doesn't become part of the partnership one way or another. Even if Shaw's spectrum is available to the partnership and the partnership can acquire all the reserved AWS-3, either Wind or Mobilicity's spectrum would be needed in southern Ontario, but not necessarily both. Mobilcity is the most likely to be bought if this happens due to the lower price.
    Wind is self-sustaining enough that it could join the partnership and provide the large city coverage, but doesn't have resources to do anything beyond that.
    Unlike Mobilicity(which will be bought), Wind has the potential to remain a small, standalone, urban carrier, join a 4th natinoal network partnership, or be bought out.


    If worst come to be, Shaw's spectrum will be sold to Rogers, and Shaw will not look back,creating a monster from Telus in the process. Eastlink and Videotron will remain solid regional carriers. Mobilicity will disappear into the night, via the Big 3 or otherwise. Wind will remain a small standalone, urban carrier, and may go bankrupt eventually as it has no potential for expansion alone.

    If the best comes to be, there will be a massive partnership with Eastlink providing coverage in the Atlantic and possibly northern Ontario, some of BC and parts of Alberta, Videotron in Quebec and possibly Ontario, Wind in the big cities, and Shaw in most of the West. The possibility is there that this partnership make strike agreements with Sasktel/MTS/Tbaytel similar to the Big 3 so they don't have to build out a new network in those areas.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    2,166
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by maege View Post
    Shaw may very well start building a network, but only if it has at least one financially capable partner (Wind and Mobilicity don't count as they have no money to help build a network).
    What ? No one in their right mind should ever think about actually installation and erecting/renting/equipping towers. Merging Wind and Mobiliticity do not need to do any actual installation or deployment at all.
    All 3 (VT/Wind/Mob) are AWS networks. There will be minimal disruption of service throughout. Some of the duplication of towers of Wind + Mob will be mothballed to save huge monthly operating costs. Some dead or semi dead zones will also be plugged too.
    What is at issue is the nominated percentage of each to the combined 3. I cannot believe VT (or whoever) will ever leave Mob or Wind alone. The 3 have to be merged or there is no 4 th carrier. If there is only VT+ Wind, Mobilcity can hang on a while maintaining the same untenable situation as of now.

Similar Threads

  1. Might be interested in getting a keitai...
    By Ji-l87 in forum Japanese Phones
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 04-26-2012, 12:13 PM
  2. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 02-23-2008, 10:15 PM
  3. Replies: 7
    Last Post: 09-19-2007, 08:24 AM
  4. Might be interested in working sales, Need info
    By sugarfairy in forum T-Mobile
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 02-20-2005, 11:36 AM
  5. To Whom might be interested in T610
    By superfire in forum SonyEricsson
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 07-28-2003, 12:02 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks