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Thread: Shaw Q2 2018 Results

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    Shaw Q2 2018 Results

    Shaw Q2 2018
    Dec 1 - Feb 28

    Press Release
    MD&A
    Earnings Call

    Wireless Q2 2018
    Revenue $290M (+106% YOY)
    ARPU 38.43 (1Q18 37.52, 2Q17 36.44)
    RGU (subs) 1,271,185 (+89,700)
    Postpaid 890,649 (+93,500)
    Prepaid 380,536 (-3,800)

    Q1 2018
    Last edited by pjw918; 04-12-2018 at 11:02 AM. Reason: earnings call

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    TSX rises as financials, Shaw Communications gain
    Reuters Apr 12

    Canada’s main stock index was higher on Thursday, helped by gains in financial stocks and a jump in Shaw Communications’ shares after the company posted a better than expected profit.
    ...
    Shaw Communications provided the biggest boost to the index with a 10 percent rise. The telecom services company beat second-quarter profit expectations as wireless subscribers more than doubled from a year ago.
    ...

    Shaw Communications profit beats on strong wireless growth
    Reuters

    Shaw Communications shares up, offsetting concerns over massive restructuring
    Canadian Press

    Globe and Mail

    MobileSyrup

    Financial Post
    .
    Last edited by pjw918; 04-13-2018 at 09:51 AM. Reason: CP link; FP coverage

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    One quote that the 'Fanboy' missed above was this one:

    However, Shaw reported a net loss of C$164 million, or a loss of 33 Canadian cents per share, compared with a profit of C$147 million, or 30 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier due to C$417 million in charges related to its voluntary departure and restructuring programs.
    Pixel 2.
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    That net loss is pretty bad, but I guess thats an economic average and not real time. The arpu increase is good though.

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    That is a lot of subscriber gain, considering Freedom only serves about 5 cities! Good job Freedom!

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    Quote Originally Posted by xtachx View Post
    That is a lot of subscriber gain, considering Freedom only serves about 5 cities! Good job Freedom!
    Really?
    89,700 seems very low to me after all the plan promos + iPhone discounts (and other devices they practically gave away)
    Even the ARPU at $38 seems frightfully low compared to others

    I really expected this to be the quarter
    If I was an investor I would sell quickly
    Public $120 Province Wide + 12GB - $6 Autopay - $9 Loyalty - $45 Refer = $20 per Month
    Telus SK North American Wide 7GB = $65
    Chatr (Mobi) $40 North America Wide + 6GB + 30 Mins Roaming
    Freedom $35 ($37-BTS) North America Wide + 8GB + 1GB Roaming

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Peppermint View Post
    Really?
    89,700 seems very low to me after all the plan promos + iPhone discounts (and other devices they practically gave away)
    Even the ARPU at $38 seems frightfully low compared to others

    I really expected this to be the quarter
    If I was an investor I would sell quickly
    These numbers are pretty impressive given the Big 3 offered $60/10GB. Investors don't seem to be worried since the stock price closed up almost 10% today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Peppermint View Post
    Really?
    89,700 seems very low to me after all the plan promos + iPhone discounts (and other devices they practically gave away)
    Even the ARPU at $38 seems frightfully low compared to others

    I really expected this to be the quarter
    If I was an investor I would sell quickly
    89k on 1.2 MM is solid growth.

    That's like Rogers gaining 900k subs.

    Yes, the net cash is negative, but we know what caused it, and that will save in the long run.

    Plus network investment is hitting the bottom line as well.

    There is speculative buying today, but it's a good bet with a two year old business. (Brad is doing things differently than Tony, so the outcome will be different)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Peppermint View Post
    Really?
    89,700 seems very low to me after all the plan promos + iPhone discounts (and other devices they practically gave away)
    Even the ARPU at $38 seems frightfully low compared to others

    I really expected this to be the quarter
    If I was an investor I would sell quickly
    Man your outlook of life is that song "that doesnt impress em much". Seriously, they made a profit even after giving away the phone for free.

    Oh the ARPU thing - the "others" actually quote ARPA - the revenue per account under ARPU. Freedom doesnt. So not apples to apples comparison. We all know freedom is meant to be cheaper than others since they dont service the same area. Freedom serves like 1/100th of an area but has an ARPU of about 1/2 th other carriers. Freedom's expenses are a lot lower since they dont maintain towers in the middle of nowhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by xtachx View Post
    ... Freedom's expenses are a lot lower since they dont maintain towers in the middle of nowhere.
    Unfortunately, they don't maintain nearly enough towers where the do operate either.

    When they start in-filling towers, which they must inevitably do, then their costs will have to rise accordingly and will more closely match the big 3. At that time, we shall see what their bottom line looks like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sirtate View Post
    89k on 1.2 MM is solid growth.

    That's like Rogers gaining 900k subs.

    Yes, the net cash is negative, but we know what caused it, and that will save in the long run.

    Plus network investment is hitting the bottom line as well.

    There is speculative buying today, but it's a good bet with a two year old business. (Brad is doing things differently than Tony, so the outcome will be different)

    Sent from my LG-H933 using HoFo mobile app
    Didn't Rogers only get 75 000 subs during the $60/10GB promos?

    I agree with you, Freedom did better than expected.

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    Quote Originally Posted by laxplayer19 View Post
    These numbers are pretty impressive given the Big 3 offered $60/10GB. Investors don't seem to be worried since the stock price closed up almost 10% today.
    The numbers are impressive given the Big 3 offered a $60/10GB plan for exactly 4 days out of the quarter. Let's not pretend this promo plan was around the entire holiday season. It was very disruptive in such a short period of time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seekr View Post
    The numbers are impressive given the Big 3 offered a $60/10GB plan...
    It was very disruptive in such a short period of time.
    Indeed, hence the "record disconnects" comment from Freedom at the time.

    COO Paul McAleese on the three-month period, from a transcript of yesterday's earnings call:

    But a couple of points on the key drivers for Q2, clearly there is some positive effect related to both seasonality and the iPhone launch effect. So I would be cautious in multiplying 93,000 times 4, though are grateful for the confidence.

    ...we've seen significant improvements in our customer experience related to the great work that our network team have done on our overall product quality. So it wasn't simply about going out and getting a bunch of more gross adds. We had record levels of customer retention during the quarter and that really helped contribute to the 90,000 as well.



    Will RBT take another run at tamping down Freedom?

    ‘Almost too good’: Shaw reports breakthrough wireless gains
    Financial Post

    Freedom Mobile added 93,500 wireless subscribers in the three months ended Feb. 28, doubling analysts’ estimates of 45,000 new customers and nearly tripling the volume it added in the same period last year.

    Shaw shares spiked more than nine per cent to close at $26.42 in Toronto as analysts praised its performance in a mobile market dominated by BCE Inc., Rogers Communications Inc. and Telus Corp.
    ...
    But TD Securities analyst Vince Valentini questioned whether Shaw worried the numbers were “almost too good in terms of shocking the incumbents,” given Freedom lost customers when the Big Three retaliated in December. He asked whether Shaw was prepared for retaliation if it maintains its pace of growth.

    “We believe we’re on a new and sustainable trajectory. We’re confident in our growth potential,” Freedom Mobile chief operating officer Paul McAleese said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by skifan View Post
    One quote that the 'Fanboy' missed above was this one:

    However, Shaw reported a net loss of C$164 million, or a loss of 33 Canadian cents per share, compared with a profit of C$147 million, or 30 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier due to C$417 million in charges related to its voluntary departure and restructuring programs.
    Nice. I can see why the stock jumped so much. What you actually see is a $106M improvement on repeating profit for the quarter ignoring that $417M one-time hit that has a 9 month ROI.

    It's a bit like paying down a lump sum on your credit card bill; yes, the bank balance drops temporarily but you get the interest back. Thing is, in this case the "interest" is closer to 125% per annum. If the size of staff turn-over doesn't cause any major stumbles, they're certainly heading in the right direction for maximizing medium-term profits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rodtaylor View Post
    If the size of staff turn-over doesn't cause any major stumbles, they're certainly heading in the right direction for maximizing medium-term profits.
    That is a mighty big 'If' there.....with that many staff bailing out, one wonders what is going to give way?

    Another looming issue is their losses on the wireline side of the company. Telus has been rapidly gaining customers from them, mainly due to their massive infrastructure spending on fibre connectivity.

    A side issue on the Telus Fibre, which directly affects Freedom, is the saturated installation of pole-mounted Nano cell technology in fairly well-to-do areas here in Metro Vancouver.....such as Downtown, Point Grey-UBC, Richmond, Tsawwassen, White Rock, etc. Where Freedom has a few cell towers, Telus is providing dozens of low power, highly connected sites. This greatly improves the building penetration issue that plagues cell providers. For Freedom to even come close to this type of coverage will cost them a pretty penny since Telus is levering this off of the above mentioned fibre install.

    Time will tell as they say.....but I will not be putting any of Shaw's stock in my portfolio quite yet.

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