Results 1 to 12 of 12

Thread: T-Mobile/Sprint merger odds rise to 70%, analysts say

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    3,721
    Device(s)
    S9
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile
    Feedback Score
    0

    T-Mobile/Sprint merger odds rise to 70%, analysts say

    Good news... However I don't see the FCC requiring T-Mobile/Sprint to sell spectrum since it would only lower the price of the several FCC Auctions coming up. With only three networks all networks need more spectrum than when there were four networks. Really should the FCC restrict the New T-Mobile from bidding on their 3.5 GHz CBRS Auction if they are to required spectrum divestitures in the 2.5 GHz spectrum that is just a little better than the 3.5 Ghz spectrum? Face it if you count all spectrum including mmWave then Verizon and AT&T have much more total spectrum than both Sprint and T-Mobile combined do today.

    T-Mobile/Sprint merger odds rise to 70%, analysts say

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Gulf Coast
    Posts
    14,996
    Device(s)
    Samsung Avant, Nexus 5X, Moto G
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile, Project Fi, PagePlus
    Feedback Score
    0
    "And Dish Network this week also reiterated its argument that the merger will stifle competition in the wireless market."
    Dish's concern is that there would be one less buyer for its spectrum.
    Donald Newcomb

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Greater Los Angeles
    Posts
    9,777
    Device(s)
    iPhone XS
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile USA
    Feedback Score
    15 (100%)
    Quote Originally Posted by shilohcane View Post
    Good news... However I don't see the FCC requiring T-Mobile/Sprint to sell spectrum since it would only lower the price of the several FCC Auctions coming up. With only three networks all networks need more spectrum than when there were four networks. Really should the FCC restrict the New T-Mobile from bidding on their 3.5 GHz CBRS Auction if they are to required spectrum divestitures in the 2.5 GHz spectrum that is just a little better than the 3.5 Ghz spectrum? Face it if you count all spectrum including mmWave then Verizon and AT&T have much more total spectrum than both Sprint and T-Mobile combined do today.

    T-Mobile/Sprint merger odds rise to 70%, analysts say
    That's great news Shilo. It's so close now. I can feel it!!
    “The Internet wasn’t meant to be metered in bits and bytes, so it’s insane that wireless companies are still making you buy it this way. The rate plan is dead — it’s a fossil from a time when wireless was metered by every call or text.” John Legere 1/5/2017

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    3,577
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by shilohcane View Post
    Good news... However I don't see the FCC requiring T-Mobile/Sprint to sell spectrum since it would only lower the price of the several FCC Auctions coming up. With only three networks all networks need more spectrum than when there were four networks. Really should the FCC restrict the New T-Mobile from bidding on their 3.5 GHz CBRS Auction if they are to required spectrum divestitures in the 2.5 GHz spectrum that is just a little better than the 3.5 Ghz spectrum? Face it if you count all spectrum including mmWave then Verizon and AT&T have much more total spectrum than both Sprint and T-Mobile combined do today.
    Face it. mm-Wave and sub 3.5 GHz have very different usability. Nobody is going to build a nationwide mm-Wave network considering the NIMBY Hell it is to get towers and cells permitted. It probably won't get deployed to small and mid towns for years. Verizon and AT&T total spectrum including mm-Wave is not a valid market comparison.

    That said, I do not believe that the spectrum T-Mo would have if they are allowed to buy Sprint should have a divestiture requirement. The Big-2 got their initial spectrum for free* as an incentive to build the initial cell networks. AFAIK, T-Mo and Sprint paid for all they have. I see no good reason to reward Verizon and AT&T for their failure to buy 600 MHz when it was available. Verizon and AT&T got a leg up at the beginning. T-Mo deserves a break this time around.

    FCC approving the Sprint sale to T-Mo is almost a sure thing. The DOJ is a different type of scrutiny for anti-trust matters. As the article said, we don't know much of anything about what the DOJ is thinking. My guess is that if DOJ was already inalterably opposed we would have heard some hints by now.

    Personally, I give the sale 30% chance of not being opposed by DOJ or T-Mo winning at trial. Reducing national carriers from four to three is a very serious matter. If that is done there is no going back.

    *A lot of the initial spectrum was given to early cell companies that Verizon and AT&T have acquired along the way.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    8,530
    Carrier(s)
    TMobile
    Feedback Score
    0
    Approval in q1? That would be nice.

    I've worked for a company that was bought by another so I've seen a little of what goes on with it. One thing that was obvious, the companies had a really really good idea of how things would go. They communicate regularly with those in power (gov etc). Sometimes the green light is unofficially given through hints etc so companies are rarely blindsided.

    The company I worked for knew almost from the start the deal would go through or at least an unofficial yes was heard loudly. It was so obvious and people talk and voice their opinions (whether for or against) early on during a review process. Times are different now so things probably operate differently but my guess is T-Mobile most likely has a good idea of how things will pan out, unless something really changes.

    My guess is the gov already knows (for the most part) which way they will lean. I think it will most likely pass but some specific areas I see needing negotiations are
    1) the low cost options and especially what will happen to all the prepaid plans etc
    2) I think sb China relationships could be a factor due to recent security questions etc
    3) you'll have a company in Japan owning some and a company in Germany so I could see opposition pointing that out

    Those are my theories (some of them) so take them with a grain of salt.

    I think it will pass if sprint and T-Mobile are ok with certain conditions

    I'm on the fence whether they will have to get rid of spectrum or not
    Last edited by themanhimself; 10-30-2018 at 01:52 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    482
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by shilohcane View Post
    I don't see the FCC requiring T-Mobile/Sprint to sell spectrum
    Neither do I. If the FCC felt that AT&T or Verizon were spectrum starved, they could suggest that either one buy DISH.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Gulf Coast
    Posts
    14,996
    Device(s)
    Samsung Avant, Nexus 5X, Moto G
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile, Project Fi, PagePlus
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by bobdevnul View Post
    ....
    *A lot of the initial spectrum was given to early cell companies that Verizon and AT&T have acquired along the way.
    "A lot" in this case, being 12.5x12.5 (originally 10x10) MHz of 850 MHz cellular spectrum. T-Mobile's predecessors got some special deals too. Omnipoint's initial PCS licenses were awarded under the terms of a "pioneer preference", which initially granted their licenses for free but was later modified to require payments of a fraction of the auction value.

    I don't recall the history of Nextel's SMR licenses. I don't think they were auctioned but rather licensed to local "mom & pop" two-way radio companies. Nextel partnered with and bought up a lot of these companies. Eventually the FCC traded band 26 for the SMR licenses.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2018
    Posts
    148
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by themanhimself View Post
    Approval in q1? That would be nice.

    I've worked for a company that was bought by another so I've seen a little of what goes on with it. One thing that was obvious, the companies had a really really good idea of how things would go. They communicate regularly with those in power (gov etc). Sometimes the green light is unofficially given through hints etc so companies are rarely blindsided.

    The company I worked for knew almost from the start the deal would go through or at least an unofficial yes was heard loudly. It was so obvious and people talk and voice their opinions (whether for or against) early on during a review process. Times are different now so things probably operate differently but my guess is T-Mobile most likely has a good idea of how things will pan out, unless something really changes.

    My guess is the gov already knows (for the most part) which way they will lean. I think it will most likely pass but some specific areas I see needing negotiations are
    1) the low cost options and especially what will happen to all the prepaid plans etc
    2) I think sb China relationships could be a factor due to recent security questions etc
    3) you'll have a company in Japan owning some and a company in Germany so I could see opposition pointing that out

    Those are my theories (some of them) so take them with a grain of salt.

    I think it will pass if sprint and T-Mobile are ok with certain conditions

    I'm on the fence whether they will have to get rid of spectrum or not
    I agree with the price part and security will always be some kind of factor when foreign dealings are involved so I agree with that also.

    I think you are right about the government already having a strong idea of how they will side. This isn't rocket science so the government could hammer this out in a weekend if they wanted to

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Posts
    8,530
    Carrier(s)
    TMobile
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by daisydoo View Post
    I agree with the price part and security will always be some kind of factor when foreign dealings are involved so I agree with that also.

    I think you are right about the government already having a strong idea of how they will side. This isn't rocket science so the government could hammer this out in a weekend if they wanted to
    My theories could be wrong but overall I think it will get a pass. Plus I would rather have 3 strong carriers instead of 2 strong 1 pretty strong and 1 struggling

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    3,577
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by DRNewcomb View Post
    "A lot" in this case, being 12.5x12.5 (originally 10x10) MHz of 850 MHz cellular spectrum. T-Mobile's predecessors got some special deals too. Omnipoint's initial PCS licenses were awarded under the terms of a "pioneer preference", which initially granted their licenses for free but was later modified to require payments of a fraction of the auction value.

    I don't recall the history of Nextel's SMR licenses. I don't think they were auctioned but rather licensed to local "mom & pop" two-way radio companies. Nextel partnered with and bought up a lot of these companies. Eventually the FCC traded band 26 for the SMR licenses.
    Thanks for the more detailed info. Like a lot of things in telcom, it can get complicated quickly. I was able to use this to my advantage and make a pretty good living by knowing the arcana of the part that I worked in.

    The simple bottom line to me is that that initial free or bargain spectrum allowed the pioneers to establish market presence and a customer base that benefits the Big-2 to this day. T-Mo deserves their shot at catching up if the Sprint sale is approved.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Greater Los Angeles
    Posts
    9,777
    Device(s)
    iPhone XS
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile USA
    Feedback Score
    15 (100%)
    Quote Originally Posted by daisydoo View Post
    I agree with the price part and security will always be some kind of factor when foreign dealings are involved so I agree with that also.

    I think you are right about the government already having a strong idea of how they will side. This isn't rocket science so the government could hammer this out in a weekend if they wanted to
    From what I understand: The biggest wrench in the whole deal is the prepaid side. There are several AG's from different states who are planning to submit their arguments to the FCC (who recently put the deal on pause) trying to get concessions that the combined company will retain competitive pricing for low income and credit challenged citizens. They are concerned that too much prepaid power will be in the hands of one major wireless provider.

    That said I'm sure T-Mobile will agree to certain price restraints in order to get this passed. It's too important to their projected growth strategy to let this get in the way.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    3,721
    Device(s)
    S9
    Carrier(s)
    T-Mobile
    Feedback Score
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by @TheRealDanny View Post
    From what I understand: The biggest wrench in the whole deal is the prepaid side. There are several AG's from different states who are planning to submit their arguments to the FCC (who recently put the deal on pause) trying to get concessions that the combined company will retain competitive pricing for low income and credit challenged citizens. They are concerned that too much prepaid power will be in the hands of one major wireless provider.

    That said I'm sure T-Mobile will agree to certain price restraints in order to get this passed. It's too important to their projected growth strategy to let this get in the way.
    When Sprint and T-Mobile met with the Congress committee John Leger keep repeating there is little difference between prepared and post paid. Maybe the simple fix is eliminate one of the two. Problem solved.

Similar Threads

  1. Virgin Mobile to Continue Amidst T-Mobile-Sprint Merger
    By AnciusD in forum Virgin Mobile USA
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 09-05-2018, 02:48 PM
  2. Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-04-2018, 08:14 PM
  3. Replies: 22
    Last Post: 09-01-2018, 09:53 AM
  4. Replies: 123
    Last Post: 05-09-2009, 10:55 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks