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Thread: Casual Poll, Have You Heard About the Year End VZW CDMA Shutdown?

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    Well since I'm 50 myself do my parents, aunts, uncles, some cousins, parents of friends etc etc count?

    I go by Verizon's numbers that can be found in quarterly reports which last time I checked were legally binding to be accurate. And a percentage of their total phone base 3G only devices are in the single digits and that number shrink each quarter
    Please share with us the URLs/weblinks of the quarterly reports you are referring to?

    Do these reports also include the 3G or CDMA customers of all of Verizon's MVNOs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by spurkcell View Post
    Please share with us the URLs/weblinks of the quarterly reports you are referring to?

    Do these reports also include the 3G or CDMA customers of all of Verizon's MVNOs?
    Obviously quarterly reports only count Verizon numbers also MNVO's are prepaid and I'm counting only postpaid accounts regardless, because that contains the data. Postpaid/MVNO are a tiny portion of Verizon's business.

    Anyway you could go to Verizon's website and find the links yourself but here you go. https://www.verizon.com/about/invest...e-call-webcast

    or more specifically https://www.verizon.com/about/file/3...token=v7OeMPik

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    Obviously quarterly reports only count Verizon numbers also MNVO's are prepaid and I'm counting only postpaid accounts regardless, because that contains the data. Postpaid/MVNO are a tiny portion of Verizon's business.

    Anyway you could go to Verizon's website and find the links yourself but here you go. https://www.verizon.com/about/invest...e-call-webcast

    or more specifically https://www.verizon.com/about/file/3...token=v7OeMPik
    Thanks Jack. Looking at page 8 of 16, Wireless Statistics of the specific URL you provide, though auto-searched the entire doc for 2G, 3G, and CDMA, this page does give us ballpark estimates. Total retail prepaid connections is 4479k as of 1Q19, but some of those customers have newer 4G LTE phones with HD Voice. Total smartphone postpaid phone base 92.7% as of 1Q19, or 7.3% flip phones with that multiplied by 113,407k Total retail postpaid connections is 8278k connections. However; there are older smartphones that do not have HD Voice increasing that 8278k number and newer flip phones that are 4G LTE with HD Voice decreasing that 8278k number (98-99% complete list of phone models with HD Voice using this https://www.phonescoop.com/phones/finder.php , Verizon salespeople I learned use this site). And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile...twork_operator says under the United States section 'There are 139 MVNOs operating in the U.S., which are estimated to hold about 7 out of every 100 wireless subscribers' (whether 7% rate is Verizon, AT&T, etc.), which if the two offsetting factors (increase/decrease) of the 8279k Verizon Wireless direct customers balance out, 8279/93% (100-7% MVNO customers) is 8902k.

    A better number of the older phones, either older flip phones or some older smartphones cannot be derived unless Verizon gives us better numbers, but at least with this information above available talking 8902k/3.21 connections per VZW direct account so at least 2,773,000 customers impacted needing to replace older non HD Voice phones/devices https://www.verizonwireless.com/supp...e-base-218813/ if they have not done so since 1Q19. Some accounts will have phones/devices that are both HD Voice complaint and others not, say a parent's phone is, but not the hand me down phone to their child or elderly parent is not. And this gets me to thinking, not only older phones are impacted, older devices ipads, netbooks, etc. any using a cellular connection (many people use only Wifi on these though) are impacted.

    And if there is not better communication from Verizon and many resellers, outside of tech blogs and forums and tech social media, those customers not so connected to Hofo or the like which say more than half the population, will hopefully find out in other ways 4Q19, and sadly some will be missed. And I hope the phone manufacturers figure this out and Verizon, the MVNOs, electronics stores (Best Buy, Walmart, etc.) and online outlets buy enough replacement phones from the phone makers to meet increased customer demand in 4Q19. For some reason, I am skeptical this will all totally happen, and expect there will be shortages when many people find out from the major news media in December.
    Last edited by spurkcell; 05-29-2019 at 09:46 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spurkcell View Post
    Thanks Jack. Looking at page 8 of 16, Wireless Statistics of the specific URL you provide, though auto-searched the entire doc for 2G, 3G, and CDMA, this page does give us ballpark estimates. Total retail prepaid connections is 4479k as of 1Q19, but some of those customers have newer 4G LTE phones with HD Voice.
    I would hazard the vast majority. Prepaid doesn't matter they keep losing customers every quarter,

    Total smartphone postpaid phone base 92.7% as of 1Q19, or 7.3% flip phones with that multiplied by 113,407k Total retail postpaid connections is 8278k connections.
    See here's where you misread the numbers.

    Verizon has 113,407K postpaid CONNECTIONS which include devices other than phones. Tablets, smartwatches, jetpacks etc. If you look it clearly shows these make up 19.7% of those connections. So phones make up 80.3% or roughly 91 million and of those 7.3% are flip phones. 7.3% of 91 million is 6.6 million not 8.3 million.

    Also as I said Verizon stopped selling non LTE basic phones for over 15 months now. So every basic phone upgrade in the last 15 months has been to a LTE basic phone. Not to mention 8 months prior they sold LTE phones alongside 3G flip phones. Even if flip phones had a mere 4% upgrade rate per quarter, in the last 15 months( 5 quarters ) one can assume that at least 20% of the 6.6 million basic phones are HD Voice compatible. Leaving 5.3 million 3G only flip phone left with 9 months to go.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    I would hazard the vast majority. Prepaid doesn't matter they keep losing customers every quarter,

    See here's where you misread the numbers.

    Verizon has 113,407K postpaid CONNECTIONS which include devices other than phones. Tablets, smartwatches, jetpacks etc. If you look it clearly shows these make up 19.7% of those connections. So phones make up 80.3% or roughly 91 million and of those 7.3% are flip phones. 7.3% of 91 million is 6.6 million not 8.3 million.

    Also as I said Verizon stopped selling non LTE basic phones for over 15 months now. So every basic phone upgrade in the last 15 months has been to a LTE basic phone. Not to mention 8 months prior they sold LTE phones alongside 3G flip phones. Even if flip phones had a mere 4% upgrade rate per quarter, in the last 15 months( 5 quarters ) one can assume that at least 20% of the 6.6 million basic phones are HD Voice compatible. Leaving 5.3 million 3G only flip phone left with 9 months to go.
    Thanks for the info and clarifying Jack. Also the MVNOs, which only per Wikipedia estimated 7 out of 100 are such, so likely small number with MVNOs. Still though a lot of phones to be replaced. If too many of these people wait until December, human last minute mentality of some, that will not be good to readily find replacement phones. iPhone/Apple, Samsung, LG, and other makers need to get producing today to meet increased 4Q19 replacement phone demand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by spurkcell View Post
    Thanks for the info and clarifying Jack. Also the MVNOs, which only per Wikipedia estimated 7 out of 100 are such, so likely small number with MVNOs. Still though a lot of phones to be replaced. If too many of these people wait until December, human last minute mentality of some, that will not be good to readily find replacement phones. iPhone/Apple, Samsung, LG, and other makers need to get producing today to meet increased 4Q19 replacement phone demand.
    If people wait that's on them. Some people that live in hurricane prone areas wait until the last minute to prepare even though they should know better. They could extend the deadline until Dec 31 2022 and you'd have laggards.

    Apple and Samsung don't make basic phones. LG has one. Also another thing to take into account is people are giving up basic phones anyway. If you look the number last quarter was 92.7% of all phones are smartphones. That number has increased by 0.5% per quarter the last several quarters. So it's likely that the percentage of smartphones will be around 94% by the end of the year. Baring any weirdness Verizon total phone lines will be 92 million at best by the end of the year. So 6% of 92 million is only 5.5 million basic phones and many of those would be 4G even if there wasn't a deadline. I would say even without a deadline just through attrition there would be maybe 3.5 mil 3G basic phones by the end of the year. Though I would hope no later than August Verizon would start offering some sort of deals to get people to upgrade.

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    Not to pour salt in the wound but I think the original issue of this OP is who's heard about it other then folks in forums or that go into the right page on their carriers web site, or try to activate a noncompliant phone and can't. Of these millions you're discussing having one type of phone or another; what percentage haven't heard about it? Even if it was on the news at some point how many happened to be watching or reading at that point in time. Whether Verizon proper or MVNO it would be simple to send out a mass text or VM to everyone at a minimum.

    Just my example. 100% of the people I've even talked to (other then on here) know about it. 90% of them are on Verizon. 50% upgrade their phone regularly because it's cool, so they have VoLTE and didn't even know about it. Of the 50% that don't regularly upgrade 95% have smartphones , not flip phones. But they're not VoLTE compliant smartphones. Which brings in another factor.
    I'm sure you've seen comments in many of the forums on the VoLTE discussion of people that think that since they have a 4G/LTE phone they're not impacted by this. How many people have a 4g/LTE smartphone and think they're set, but will have a rude awakening at the end of the year?

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    Even if the percentage of non-VoLTE users is in the single digits, it won't take many "senior died because their emergency phone suddenly no longer worked" stories on the news to be a PR nightmare for Verizon, with liability lawyers slithering out to partake in the windfall. While I am, by the calendar, a senior, I am still a working technology professional, but I know that most of our friends our age don't have a clue about this "G" business, and use their cell phone like they have always used phones: to make phone calls. As hard to believe that may be for those on forums like this. While Verizon certainly knows (by ESN/MEID) who has non-VoLTE phones that are on post-paid accounts, there are some number of people who have inactive phones that they have been told can still make 911 calls. There really is not much Verizon can do about them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CharlesH View Post
    Even if the percentage of non-VoLTE users is in the single digits, it won't take many "senior died because their emergency phone suddenly no longer worked" stories on the news to be a PR nightmare for Verizon, with liability lawyers slithering out to partake in the windfall. While I am, by the calendar, a senior, I am still a working technology professional, but I know that most of our friends our age don't have a clue about this "G" business, and use their cell phone like they have always used phones: to make phone calls. As hard to believe that may be for those on forums like this. While Verizon certainly knows (by ESN/MEID) who has non-VoLTE phones that are on post-paid accounts, there are some number of people who have inactive phones that they have been told can still make 911 calls. There really is not much Verizon can do about them.
    If it's an emergency phone. As in no service with any carrier then it's not Verizon's responsibility any more than it's at&t's

    Listen you all assume Verizon is going to site by an say nothing. Besides the fact they have told the new several times already over the years they are not going to not say anything for the next 7 months. Which brings up another fact. There is still 7 months to go.

    It seems most of you who worry are too young to remember to analog to digital cut off for mobile phones. Guess what, everything went fine. No grand disaster, no one got sued or jailed because bunch of old people died because their phones didn't work anymore. I'm sure Verizon's well paid legal team knows what Verizon's responsibilities are regarding this and advising corporate on it.

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    Some of us care more about the non-techy ones in our lives, so their lives are not negatively impacted. Leave it to news media, the corporations, and the government to over communicate what we really do not need to know, but little mention or not mention at all what we really need to know. As individuals, as some of you and I have done, let the less techy ones in our lives know so they can get their phones replaced if needed, before they get hurt, regardless of what Wall Street is doing which many main street people really do not care about. Besides other needs in their or our lives, having a working phone going forward is quite important, unless we go back to the tin cans connected by string era.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    You'd be very wrong. What part of "shutdown" confuses you? If phones still worked it wouldn't be a shutdown. That spectrum is better served for 4G than CDMA
    What's Verizon's deadline in getting LTE to actually work well?

    I live in one of Verizon's premiere LTE areas. With great fanfare (read that to include a free lunch for everyone!), brought up our LTE service.

    However, as many others have also reported, even their best, premiere, LTE areas have major holes in it. LTE= swiss cheese. For example, whenever I go to Home Depot, my phone has to drop back to 3G.

    Please give all of us, Verizon's deadline for finally fixing this? Its up to you. Obviously, it has to be long before 3G gets shutdown.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Hagar View Post
    It seems most of you who worry are too young to remember to analog to digital cut off for mobile phones. Guess what, everything went fine.
    I'm not to young. I started with an analog phone. Analog to digital began in the mid 90s I believe. Analog wasn't totally turned off till 2008. Back in the 90s cell phones were a want not a need. Not that they're a need now but pretty darn close. Back then you didn't have 80 year olds and rank and file people with cell phones and there was a pay phone on every corner. Now there's a significantly greater user base and demographics then back then that have a real reliance.

    I do agree, lets see how the year plays out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WaltA View Post
    What's Verizon's deadline in getting LTE to actually work well?

    I live in one of Verizon's premiere LTE areas. With great fanfare (read that to include a free lunch for everyone!), brought up our LTE service.

    However, as many others have also reported, even their best, premiere, LTE areas have major holes in it. LTE= swiss cheese. For example, whenever I go to Home Depot, my phone has to drop back to 3G.

    Please give all of us, Verizon's deadline for finally fixing this? Its up to you. Obviously, it has to be long before 3G gets shutdown.
    Um because you're inside a huge build made out of concrete and metal. Full of lots of other stuff made out of metal other stuff.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WaltA View Post
    What's Verizon's deadline in getting LTE to actually work well?

    I live in one of Verizon's premiere LTE areas. With great fanfare (read that to include a free lunch for everyone!), brought up our LTE service.

    However, as many others have also reported, even their best, premiere, LTE areas have major holes in it. LTE= swiss cheese. For example, whenever I go to Home Depot, my phone has to drop back to 3G.

    Please give all of us, Verizon's deadline for finally fixing this? Its up to you. Obviously, it has to be long before 3G gets shutdown.
    Does your phone “have to” drop to 3g or does it just “want to”.

    I have an area near me the if I’m just driving through my phone would drop to 3g but if I was already on a call when driving through then the phone will hold a LTE signal just fine. Granted I’m not breaking any download speed records and it’s definitely a fringe signal area.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JoeInPa View Post
    Does your phone “have to” drop to 3g or does it just “want to”.
    This. After I forced my phone to LTE-only a few years ago, all LTE "holes" suddenly disappeared

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