Not sure why her 6s can't update to iOS 14.2, the latest version. Many 6s users have already updated, and I've seen no reports of any failed attempts. also, her only update option is iOS 14.2 now. Apple only "signs" the current version, so it's the only update her phone will find. Her only options are to leave her phone on iOS10, or get the update to iOS 14.2 to work.
She can easily set up her new phone, and it will be on iOS 14.2 when done. She can use iCloud to move photos, contacts, messages (if she's been using iCloud for messages), and other data to her new phone. But she won't be able to restore any iCloud backups from her old phone unless she can first get it on iOS 14.2 and then back it up.
Yes, it's onerous. Thanks, Apple.
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