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Thread: Current C-Band Estimates Put T-Mobile at $4 Billion in Bids

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    Current C-Band Estimates Put T-Mobile at $4 Billion in Bids

    Current estimates so far:

    Verizon: $28B
    AT&T: $18B
    Comcast/Charter: $30B
    T-Mobile: $4B
    UScellular: $2B
    Dish Network: $2B

    https://mobile.twitter.com/mikeddano...28924498690054


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    The cable-co’s appear to not be messing around here...


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    Quote Originally Posted by @TheRealDanny View Post
    The cable-co’s appear to not be messing around here...
    I'm having a hard time imagining the cable companies deploying $30 Bn worth of spectrum. Smells like spectrum hoarding to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bobdevnul View Post
    I'm having a hard time imagining the cable companies deploying $30 Bn worth of spectrum. Smells like spectrum hoarding to me.
    It's a lot cheaper to use wireless to expand "cable's" service area than to string wires. And keep in mind, there's not just one side to the equation, the taxpayers stand to benefit from more competition at the auction.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DRNewcomb View Post
    It's a lot cheaper to use wireless to expand "cable's" service area than to string wires. And keep in mind, there's not just one side to the equation, the taxpayers stand to benefit from more competition at the auction.
    Ok, maybe I'm wrong about cable co. spectrum hoarding.

    It would be an interesting paradigm shift for cable cos. to start expanding wirelessly. I have not heard of any doing or planning it. As JH said, they might have gotten the blocks that can't be used until 2023.

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    Is T-Mobile overcalling Verizon in the C-band auction?

    https://www.lightreading.com/5g/is-t.../d/d-id/766377




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    Quote Originally Posted by @TheRealDanny View Post
    Is T-Mobile overcalling Verizon in the C-band auction?
    If the current bids are still in proportion to the numbers above, no T-Mo is not jacking the prices to the others.

    Without breaking down the bids by the A vs B&C blocks the numbers don't mean much.

    It is a very poor article that comes to a conclusion not supported by facts. The author seems to be some kind of Verizon hater/T-Mo fanboy.

    Anyone have updated numbers? I saw a headline earlier today that the total bids had reached an all time high for spectrum auctions.

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    Let me clarify Bob: I added the link above to this discussion as if it were a catch-all article for all things T-Mobile/C-Band related since we don’t have at official one.

    You are right. The previous 2 week old $4 billion bid estimate is likely way outdated.


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    Update:

    The analysts at New Street Research have most recently estimated that AT&T would spend $24 billion on C-band, with Verizon estimated at $29 billion and T-Mobile at $13 billion.

    Meanwhile, analysts at Cowen have estimated AT&T’s C-band spend at $20 billion; Verizon’s at $35 billion; and T-Mobile at $10-15 billion.


    https://www.fiercewireless.com/opera...bly-for-c-band



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    In the past, cable cos bought spectrum in PCS, AWS, and various other auctions, then sold it a while later, effectively they did a bit of spectrum hoarding. But I don't know that the cable and wireless technology back then were particularly complementary, you'd be running a cable TV system and seperately running a cellular network. Now? They have widespread HFC (hybrid fiber coax) networks, a fiber backbone with coax running the last block or so to individual houses, so loads of locations to pop in fiber-fed microcells. They may still just sit on the spectrum again, but they would be in a decent position to have a go of it if they want to.

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    Then there’s still the possibility of a mammoth merger between a CableCo like Comcast and T-Mobile in the future.

    For now I believe they’ll do well offloading their subs onto their own networks in dense urban areas lessening their reliance on Verizon.




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    Quote Originally Posted by hwertz View Post
    In the past, cable cos bought spectrum in PCS, AWS, and various other auctions, then sold it a while later, effectively they did a bit of spectrum hoarding. But I don't know that the cable and wireless technology back then were particularly complementary, you'd be running a cable TV system and seperately running a cellular network. Now? They have widespread HFC (hybrid fiber coax) networks, a fiber backbone with coax running the last block or so to individual houses, so loads of locations to pop in fiber-fed microcells. They may still just sit on the spectrum again, but they would be in a decent position to have a go of it if they want to.
    it's likely Comcast/Charter didn't buy much if any spectrum https://www.fiercewireless.com/wirel...ction-analysts

    Analysts point to Charter’s share repurchases in the fourth quarter and Comcast’s plans for a share repurchase in the second half of 2021 as indicative that they probably didn’t spend over-the-top amounts in the C-band auction.

    Comcast management “announced intentions to begin repurchasing shares in 2H21, an announcement sooner than expected, signaling a vote of confidence on FCF durability (despite still-COVID headwinds, backed by Cable strength) and in our view signaling a manageable spend at the C-Band auction,” wrote Cowen analysts.

    In their earnings calls, Comcast and Verizon both commented on changes to their existing MVNO agreement, to which Charter is a party, and that should help lower variable costs and boost gross margins, though neither provided any specificity, noted Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson in a Friday report for investors.


    There has been some concern that Charter (and Comcast) will turn out to have been significant buyers of C-Band spectrum. We’ve always been doubtful that that would be the case, but Charter’s share repurchases in Q4, and Comcast’s repeated mentions of their 'asset light' strategy, should probably now put those concerns to rest,” Moffett wrote. “Their CBRS spectrum, however, provides a clear path for traffic offload. To the extent that they can offload a meaningful amount of traffic from their MVNO agreement, they will be able to reduce their variable costs more dramatically.

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