Verizon won't catch T-Mobile with C-band

[@TheRealDanny]

Even if Verizon spends an astounding $44 billion to purchase C-band spectrum, it still won't have anywhere near the amount of midband spectrum that T-Mobile will command, according to a new report by the financial analysts at Evercore.

The analysts expect T-Mobile to own twice the amount of midband spectrum than Verizon on a per-subscriber basis, even after the C-band results are tallied. Even if Verizon bought all of the C-band spectrum up for grabs in the FCC's auction – which would carry a $95 billion price tag in bidding and clearing costs – it would only pass T-Mobile’s midband spectrum holdings by 16%.


https://www.lightreading.com/5g/veri...d/d-id/767264?





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[Jack Hagar]

Last time I checked T-Mobile MAYBE uses 80 MHz of 2.5 GHz and mostly 60 MHz. If Verion and at&t get 100 MHz well there you go. Also there is another 100 MHz in the 3450-3550 MHz auction later this year and there is a 2.5 GHz auction this year auctioning off another 117 MHz which Verizon and at&t are also free to participate in. Love how the article totally neglects to mention these 2 auctions. Weird

[brad15]

Last time I checked T-Mobile MAYBE uses 80 MHz of 2.5 GHz and mostly 60 MHz. If Verion and at&t get 100 MHz well there you go. Also there is another 100 MHz in the 3450-3550 MHz auction later this year and there is a 2.5 GHz auction this year auctioning off another 117 MHz which Verizon and at&t are also free to participate in. Love how the article totally neglects to mention these 2 auctions. Weird

You do know ~80MHz of 5G usage is only during the Sprint transition.. which will be complete in less than 12mos.. then the full bandwidth will be used.. but again, i'm already getting 600+Mbps on a regular from T-Mobile, even indoors.. so 80MHz is still serving quite well even in the short term.

Also, after Verizon and AT&T throwing so much cash at C-Band, I'm betting T-Mobile will be able to just come in and grab most if not all of the remaining 2.5GHz licences, as they've spent hardly anything, and considering they have ~1/2 the debt load of AT&T/Verizon they can actually "afford" to borrow for 2.5GHz if they need too

So again, nice troll?

[JoeInPa]

You do know ~80MHz of 5G usage is only during the Sprint transition.. which will be complete in less than 12mos.. then the full bandwidth will be used.. but again, i'm already getting 600+Mbps on a regular from T-Mobile, even indoors.. so 80MHz is still serving quite well even in the short term.

Also, after Verizon and AT&T throwing so much cash at C-Band, I'm betting T-Mobile will be able to just come in and grab most if not all of the remaining 2.5GHz licences, as they've spent hardly anything, and considering they have ~1/2 the debt load of AT&T/Verizon they can actually "afford" to borrow for 2.5GHz if they need too

So again, nice troll?

T-Mo is definitely in a good position with the spectrum they own, and yes in a few years when the T-Mo and sprint network is complete they will have a big chunk of 5G spectrum. T-Mo has the potential to be in a great position for years to come because of their spectrum holdings. I also agree that Verizon has to be kicking themselves over not being more aggressive buying non mmWave spectrum in the past.

However, owning spectrum is only a piece of the puzzle. They need to deploy all that spectrum, upgrade towers with the latest technology, have the fiber back haul in place, have good tower density, and have backup systems in place. I lm not at all saying that T-Mo isn’t doing this I’m merely stating that having a lot of spectrum is only one piece of the puzzle.


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[@TheRealDanny]

On Feb. 2nd it was estimated that T-Mobile may have bid as much as $15 billion in this latest auction.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/opera...bly-for-c-band

With their existing US 5G lead, C-Band winnings and expected Auction 108 participation they are in a really good enviable position.

https://www.fiercewireless.com/wirel...-license-areas

If 2020 taught us something it’s to expect the unexpected and that anything can happen. The US wireless 5G battle has only begun.




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[brad15]

T-Mo is definitely in a good position with the spectrum they own, and yes in a few years when the T-Mo and sprint network is complete they will have a big chunk of 5G spectrum. T-Mo has the potential to be in a great position for years to come because of their spectrum holdings. I also agree that Verizon has to be kicking themselves over not being more aggressive buying non mmWave spectrum in the past.

However, owning spectrum is only a piece of the puzzle. They need to deploy all that spectrum, upgrade towers with the latest technology, have the fiber back haul in place, have good tower density, and have backup systems in place. I lm not at all saying that T-Mo isn’t doing this I’m merely stating that having a lot of spectrum is only one piece of the puzzle.


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T-Mobile was actually 100% fiber to the cell site when I worked there in College. They were making a big deal about it during the early 3G rollout.

I was surprised coming over from Verizon whom was heavy into microwave at the time that T-Mobile had went fully fiber that early on.

Between the total cell sites between the combined companies, the spectrum holdings, strong already-in-place fiber backhaul, new sites available from Crown Castle/American Tower, and along with Sprint's huge Fiber Tier 1 network.. they have all of the pieces to pull this off, and be mostly their own "ISP" per se..

With T-Mobile's aggressive track record, they'll do it.. AT&T and Verizon had better be treading carefully, as they've both put themselves in a tad of a pickle with both Spectrum and Debt.

[Theghostlad82]

T-Mobile was actually 100% fiber to the cell site when I worked there in College. They were making a big deal about it during the early 3G rollout.

I was surprised coming over from Verizon whom was heavy into microwave at the time that T-Mobile had went fully fiber that early on.

Between the total cell sites between the combined companies, the spectrum holdings, strong already-in-place fiber backhaul, new sites available from Crown Castle/American Tower, and along with Sprint's huge Fiber Tier 1 network.. they have all of the pieces to pull this off, and be mostly their own "ISP" per se..

With T-Mobile's aggressive track record, they'll do it.. AT&T and Verizon had better be treading carefully, as they've both put themselves in a tad of a pickle with both Spectrum and Debt.

T-Mobile is not immune to debt issues.They currently have about 72b in long term debt, compared to Verizon’s 109b, but have an ev/ebitda of over 12 compared to Verizon’s 7 and a halfish. So Verizon is better equipped to handle a little larger debt load right now. Not to mention, new growth is becoming stagnant across all 3 carriers and they have gone into squeezing all they can out of current customers mode. T-Mobile will advertise over 1 million new adds, but they only added around 200,000 new accounts. Interestingly also, their average per account remained the same from q3 to q4, which they explained was from holiday promos (free lines). So actual new growth has slowed. I don’t think either one has a long term debt issue right now, but in terms of being careful, both Verizon and T-Mobile are in a similar position.



I get why T-Mobile is fixated on Verizon, but, at&t is quietly building out maybe the best network in the country right now. Remember all the fluff T-Mobile put out about being the best equipped 5G provider at the super bowl? AT&T actually won all the Speedtest awards there. AT&T had taken both ooklas 5G and 4G speed awards, I get T-Mobile claims the open signal speed title, and great, but, ookla is far more respected and has far more data points to calculate their findings from. AT&Ts network is quite impressive right now, if they ever figure out how to be a wireless provider, I’d worry more about them than Verizon.

[brad15]

While I agree AT&T has gotten "better" I actually use a dual SIM setup with AT&T/T-Mobile.

AT&T a few years ago i'd not touch with a 10ft pole, BUT since FirstNet they've gotten **** mostly together, but I still travel many places where it's a second rate network in the city, and rurally I still have far too many areas it drops to HSPA even compared to T-Mobile now.

AT&T has promise, but they as well sat on thier *** too long and are just playing catch up now... as that's why "5Ge" became a thing - they were far too late to the party for any meaningful LTE upgrades and had to brand it as something else instead of admitting they were a few years behind Verizon and AT&T.

I do not hold much confidence in AT&T until this is all said and done, that company is like a titanic trying to make a u-turn on a dime, and it'll be at least 5-6yrs before they have a "meaningful" answer to Verizon and T-Mobile for real 5G,

Also in my line of work traveling all over... I rarely see anyone with anything but an iPhone on AT&T and they're usually a few year old versions at that. I have met maybe 5-10 people with a 5G phone on AT&T as the others with an iPhone 8 and above already think they have 5G thanks to the "5Ge" BS, so having less congested 5G at a ⅓ packed super bowl stadium is of no surprise Verizon and T-Mobile have been pushing 5G phone upgrades quite a bit more aggressively than AT&T, whereas AT&T has iPhone Xs and Xr on "sale" for the last few months after the iPhone 12 promos went away.

[Theghostlad82]

While I agree AT&T has gotten "better" I actually use a dual SIM setup with AT&T/T-Mobile.

AT&T a few years ago i'd not touch with a 10ft pole, BUT since FirstNet they've gotten **** mostly together, but I still travel many places where it's a second rate network in the city, and rurally I still have far too many areas it drops to HSPA even compared to T-Mobile now.

AT&T has promise, but they as well sat on thier *** too long and are just playing catch up now... as that's why "5Ge" became a thing - they were far too late to the party for any meaningful LTE upgrades and had to brand it as something else instead of admitting they were a few years behind Verizon and AT&T.

I do not hold much confidence in AT&T until this is all said and done, that company is like a titanic trying to make a u-turn on a dime, and it'll be at least 5-6yrs before they have a "meaningful" answer to Verizon and T-Mobile for real 5G,

Also in my line of work traveling all over... I rarely see anyone with anything but an iPhone on AT&T and they're usually a few year old versions at that. I have met maybe 5-10 people with a 5G phone on AT&T as the others with an iPhone 8 and above already think they have 5G thanks to the "5Ge" BS, so having less congested 5G at a ⅓ packed super bowl stadium is of no surprise Verizon and T-Mobile have been pushing 5G phone upgrades quite a bit more aggressively than AT&T, whereas AT&T has iPhone Xs and Xr on "sale" for the last few months after the iPhone 12 promos went away.

Define “meaningful 5G”. AT&T currently sits on top or near the top in all 3rd party 5G performance rankings. I don’t put much stock in someone posting anecdotal claims on a forum, they tend to be biased and the person making the claim hardly ever goes into it with an open mind and they instead try to find any reason to back up their biased opinion, instead of looking for the truth. I believe independent 3rd party testing firms offer a much more complete analysis of what’s going on nationally. Not using just one source, but looking at all of them individually, see what they are actually testing, see what their results are, and using all of them to paint a complete picture. All of them are showing AT&T is right there, and even above, Verizon and AT&T right now in network performance on both 4G and 5G.

The concerns about AT&T’s business practices are valid, they have never really been a “consumer friendly” wireless carrier. But, people also have short term memory, so this could be fixed if they choose to fix it. The customers they do have (and they still have plenty) seem content on staying there, AT&T has posted record low churn for the last few quarters now. Though again, this is a trend all 3 carriers are seeing, slow external growth, hang on to the ones they got and max them out on lines.


As far as discounts on non 5G devices, yes, all 3 carriers heavily discount the non 5G iPhones and devices right now, and in my opinion, they may be better buys right now over the 5G devices.


I think the real network battle is going to be between AT&T and T-Mobile, not to say Verizon is going anywhere, they’ll always be Verizon and will always be fine, I just think AT&T is, and will be, T-Mobiles main competitor going forward in network supremacy.

[brad15]

Again I want to see numbers for actual active 5G devices

I’m willing to bet AT&T has less than both Verizon and T-Mobile. As sometime who uses both I’m going on experience as like today I’ll be in two different states and be downtown in another city, as I am 3-5 days a week

As I said.. AT&T has definitely improved but they’re nowhere near where they could be had they not wasted all that money on media bits and focused on communication

[Theghostlad82]

Again I want to see numbers for actual active 5G devices

I’m willing to bet AT&T has less than both Verizon and T-Mobile. As sometime who uses both I’m going on experience as like today I’ll be in two different states and be downtown in another city, as I am 3-5 days a week

As I said.. AT&T has definitely improved but they’re nowhere near where they could be had they not wasted all that money on media bits and focused on communication

Number of devices can roughly be figured out just by actual sales numbers of devices. Yes, T-Mobile sells more cheap 5G devices, but, nobody buys that stuff. The top selling 5G devices by far are apple and Samsung’s latest offerings, which AT&T sells. I suppose the argument could be nobody on AT&T is buying those devices, but, it’s hard to believe the numbers being pushed are just T-Mobile, Verizon and unlocked models only, especially since unlocked models make up such a small percentage of U..S. phone sales.


Yes, I am quite sure you will go into your own personal testing without any biased opinions on your findings at all. But, judging on national results and averages, as I said, it’s AT&T that is the network T-Mobile has to compete with and not Verizon.


What they could of been is a valid point, no arguments that AT&T as a wireless carrier has suffered extremely from bad and misguided management, but again, judging on results from independent testing firms, what they are now is also pretty darn impressive.

[kevink1]

I have 5G iPhone on att network bot not 5G plan. Don’t want to spend that kind of money when att doesn’t have 5G locally yet for me.

[Jack Hagar]

I have 5G iPhone on att network bot not 5G plan. Don’t want to spend that kind of money when att doesn’t have 5G locally yet for me.

I'm pretty sure at&t doesn't have 5G specific plans

[Jack Hagar]

I think the real network battle is going to be between AT&T and T-Mobile, not to say Verizon is going anywhere, they’ll always be Verizon and will always be fine, I just think AT&T is, and will be, T-Mobiles main competitor going forward in network supremacy.

Based on what? At&t is likely waiting years for meaningful mid-band spectrum for 5G. Verizon is goign to get most if not all the C-band that will be available to deploy in December. Whereas at&t will be left with spectrum that can't be deployed until Dec 2023. Not that they'll get much anyway since they are $150 bil in debt

[Theghostlad82]

Based on what? At&t is likely waiting years for meaningful mid-band spectrum for 5G. Verizon is goign to get most if not all the C-band that will be available to deploy in December. Whereas at&t will be left with spectrum that can't be deployed until Dec 2023. Not that they'll get much anyway since they are $150 bil in debt

Based on all 3rd party testing firms results. I get you really live Verizon, heck, you pay for a plan that others get for half the price with the exact same features. I get it, you like them. But, when you look at actual numbers and results, they are lagging behind both T-Mobile and AT&T on a national scale. AT&T continues to take almost every 4G and 5G speed award, with T-Mobile right there with them. Hence why you see T-Mobile attacking Verizon so hard lately, it’s easy to show Verizon is lagging behind in the network game, would be much harder with AT&T. Verizon is 109B in debt themselves, again it’s not like any of the 3 carriers can claim they are in great shape debt wise. T-Mobile likely is in the best, but, they also take in less revenue than the other 2. Also, you made a huge deal about “blocking me” just a week ago. Unblocked me already eh?