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Thread: Q2 2022: Verizon posts 12k net adds

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    Q2 2022: Verizon posts 12k net adds

    After rough Q2, Verizon CEO says they’re on the case


    https://www.fiercewireless.com/wirel...ys-theyre-case
    “The Internet wasn’t meant to be metered in bits and bytes, so it’s insane that wireless companies are still making you buy it this way. The rate plan is dead — it’s a fossil from a time when wireless was metered by every call or text.” John Legere 1/5/2017

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    Ah capitalism, the genius idea that infinite growth is possible with a finite number of customers and on a planet with finite resources.

    Say what you will about other economic systems, but at least some of them have an answer for how to handle economic plateauing rather than always relying on economic growth. A lack of new customers in a saturated market is only a problem because of this specific economic system's artificial and unrealistic expectations.

    And I don't think this is an unnecessary insertion of politics, by the way. I think it's actually very appropriate and indeed directly relevant to interrogate this topic's underlying premise that it's somehow a bad thing that nearly everybody in the USA is now connected to wireless services that meet their needs, because that's the assumption behind expecting net adds to never slow down or stop.

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    T-Mobile had 723,000 net phone customer adds. Not to feed our resident troll, but the answer isn’t communism, it’s Verizon stepping up their game.

    Everyone who lives in reality knows the market is pretty well saturated. That’s why T-Mo has historically has, and now Verizon currently is essentially giving away free lines to provide the illusion of growth.

    But at the end of the day, the big 3 are just managing churn amongst themselves and they all know it. Verizon is just currently experiencing their own microcosm of a market correction as their customers realize there is no longer a premium network to go with the premium price and look for better options.


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    So you agree that the market is saturated and that there's diminishing runway left in customer poaching & getting current customers to add extra lines. I'm only seeing support for my assertion that growth can't continue indefinitely.

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    Growth is meaningless if revenue doesn't grow from it. All 3 carriers missed on revenue this quarter, and all 3 have missed on revenue projections the last few quarters. T-Mobiles race to the bottom they had a few years ago is now catching up to all of the carriers, all 3 have little resources to increase revenue. People wait to add lines until one of the carriers get desperate and does a deal, people wait to upgrade phones until one of the carriers gets desperate and has to heavily subsidize a handset with bill credits, which cuts into revenue, it's a no win situation for any of the carriers. Can argue it's good for the consumer, but there are consequences to this. They have to cut expenses elsewhere, customer service, network improvements, etc. It's where all 3 carriers are at this point. This is what happens when you have a race to the bottom, eventually you get there. This is why all 3 are looking to other avenues to increase revenue outside of traditional wireless, TMobile and Verizon with their 5g home internet, and at&t with their fiber wireline services. Problem is TMobile is trying to make those a race to the bottom as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by VVivian View Post
    So you agree that the market is saturated and that there's diminishing runway left in customer poaching & getting current customers to add extra lines. I'm only seeing support for my assertion that growth can't continue indefinitely.
    Customers are being born and reach the age when they need a phone earlier and earlier. That's one of the growth sources.
    Customers also arrive in huge numbers in this country (I won't get into how or legalities) and need connectivity too. That's another growth source.
    "Poaching" other providers customers is good, because it lovers the cost of those services for users. That's growth that actually is helpful to existing customer base.
    Quote Originally Posted by Theghostlad82 View Post
    Growth is meaningless if revenue doesn't grow from it. All 3 carriers missed on revenue this quarter, and all 3 have missed on revenue projections the last few quarters.
    Unrealistic revenue expectations is the CEO fault, not because of "growth". Competition is good for us, the customers, because it lowers the cost of services. Might not be good for bottom line, but I don't have stocks in VZW.

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    Build It And They Will Come. If Verizon would get off it's 100% uw5G urban kick and do more build out even on LTE, for rural and small communities to be able to offer reliable service and capacity to offer Home Internet to these areas. They will come.
    To much money and marketing is spent on just the urban market. They have that revenue and user market locked in...they need the outliers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clonehappy View Post
    T-Mobile had 723,000 net phone customer adds. Not to feed our resident troll, but the answer isn’t communism, it’s Verizon stepping up their game.

    Everyone who lives in reality knows the market is pretty well saturated. That’s why T-Mo has historically has, and now Verizon currently is essentially giving away free lines to provide the illusion of growth.

    But at the end of the day, the big 3 are just managing churn amongst themselves and they all know it. Verizon is just currently experiencing their own microcosm of a market correction as their customers realize there is no longer a premium network to go with the premium price and look for better options.
    In order for Verizon to step up their game requires resources to do that. They lack spectrum resources to service more customers. Verizon's currently available spectrum is saturated in many places. In hindsight we can say that it was not a good business decision for Vz to sit out some of the recent spectrum auctions other than mm-wave. They bought a good chunk of C-band, but a lot of it cannot be deployed until 2024 (IIRC).

    Vz did not go idle while they sat out spectrum auctions. They rolled a huge amount of fiber to support their cell sites at 5G capacity for when they have the spectrum to deploy. It was so much fiber that Corning built an entire new factory to supply fiber to Vz. They will be positioned to put more bits on the air when the time comes.

    The market for personal cell handsets is pretty well saturated in the US. I started saying that a decade ago when I saw minimum wage workers and homeless people with smartphones. That does not mean that the entire cellular market is saturated. There are still significant market segments to expand to - fixed wireless home Internet and huge amounts of IoT and M2M for example.

    I can agree that communism is never the answer to any problem. It's been tried many times and it never worked. There is no need to try that failed system again - ever.

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    It does not surprise me since Verizon Wireless has really went down hill over the last couple of months. Their customer service has really went down hill to the point you can no longer tell the difference between postpaid and prepaid/MVNO support. You have Verizon Wireless arbitrarily removing credits put on their account by a CSR for issues with either their service or billing. You have areas which LTE is becoming unusable where VZW has yet to deploy updated cellular antennas which would enable UWB coverage. In addition to that Verizon Wireless is not helping the congestion situation by limiting which plans can access higher capacity layers as well too. That does not even include the fact that Verizon Wireless is refusing to add value or lower their monthly rate plans to be competitive with AT&T/T Mobile. I suspect these losses are going to continue until Verizon Wireless address’s these issues.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SoNic67 View Post
    Customers are being born and reach the age when they need a phone earlier and earlier. That's one of the growth sources.
    Customers also arrive in huge numbers in this country (I won't get into how or legalities) and need connectivity too. That's another growth source.
    "Poaching" other providers customers is good, because it lovers the cost of those services for users. That's growth that actually is helpful to existing customer base.

    Unrealistic revenue expectations is the CEO fault, not because of "growth". Competition is good for us, the customers, because it lowers the cost of services. Might not be good for bottom line, but I don't have stocks in VZW.
    Not entirely accurate, revenue projections are made by wall street estimates based on things such as projected growth. Growth should = increased revenue naturally. It's not for any of the carriers at any meaningful levels. Where the revenue growth will come from remains to be seen. As far as competition being good for the consumer, it's a 2 way street. A company isn't going to want to cut profits so with minimal revenue increases it means they will cut in other areas.


    As far as new phones being an area for potential growth, this is minimalized by the excessive subsidizing of handsets carriers do. Someone has to pay apple and Samsung for those phones, when a carrier gives you a free iPhone, they are eating the cost of the phone for service revenue. This isn't true "growth". I wouldn't at all be shocked if within the next year or so we start hearing rumors of Verizon, or even TMobile to be honest, merging with one of the cable giants start back up.
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    Last edited by Theghostlad82; 07-28-2022 at 03:18 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Theghostlad82 View Post
    Not entirely accurate, revenue projections are made by wall street estimates based on things such as projected growth. Growth should = increased revenue naturally. It's not for any of the carriers at any meaningful levels. Where the revenue growth will come from remains to be seen. As far as competition being good for the consumer, it's a 2 way street. A company isn't going to want to cut profits so with minimal revenue increases it means they will cut in other areas.


    As far as new phones being an area for potential growth, this is minimalized by the excessive subsidizing of handsets carriers do. Someone has to pay apple and Samsung for those phones, when a carrier gives you a free iPhone, they are eating the cost of the phone for service revenue. This isn't true "growth". I wouldn't at all be shocked if within the next year or so we start hearing rumors of Verizon, or even TMobile to be honest, merging with one of the cable giants start back up.
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    At the end of the day I would have no problems with Verizon Wireless ending device subsidizes since you do have the option to finance the device. But Verizon Wireless does need to be more realistic with their monthly pricing considering their are a lot of cheaper alternatives available to consumers. In addition I do not see US regulators allowing any more consolidation of the wireless industry since that would lead to skyrocketing prices for the consumer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by techguru30 View Post
    At the end of the day I would have no problems with Verizon Wireless ending device subsidizes since you do have the option to finance the device. But Verizon Wireless does need to be more realistic with their monthly pricing considering their are a lot of cheaper alternatives available to consumers. In addition I do not see US regulators allowing any more consolidation of the wireless industry since that would lead to skyrocketing prices for the consumer.
    With the other 2 carriers offering heavily discounted and even free flagships with monthly credits it would be suicide for Verizon to not offer the same thing. I agree on their pricing structure, I believe this is their biggest issue attracting new users.

    Not sure what would happen if cable tried to merge with Verizon or T-Mobile. Verizon made an offer for charter a few years ago that charter rejected. On one hand the cable companies aren’t true competitors as they are not MNO’s and should be viewed as a mvno, on the other hand they are competitors as they are the fastest growing wireless carriers in the U.S. It would be interesting to see how regulators would view this.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Theghostlad82 View Post
    With the other 2 carriers offering heavily discounted and even free flagships with monthly credits it would be suicide for Verizon to not offer the same thing. I agree on their pricing structure, I believe this is their biggest issue attracting new users.

    Not sure what would happen if cable tried to merge with Verizon or T-Mobile. Verizon made an offer for charter a few years ago that charter rejected. On one hand the cable companies aren’t true competitors as they are not MNO’s and should be viewed as a mvno, on the other hand they are competitors as they are the fastest growing wireless carriers in the U.S. It would be interesting to see how regulators would view this.


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    I could see Charter/Comcast making a joint offer to buy T Mobile USA but I doubt it would get regulatory approval since that would be eliminating a wireless competitor in Spectrum/Comcast service areas. In addition I do not see regulators approving Verizon, T Mobile, or AT&T buying out Spectrum or Comcast for the same reason.

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    Q2 2022: Verizon posts 12k net adds

    Quote Originally Posted by bobdevnul View Post
    In order for Verizon to step up their game requires resources to do that. They lack spectrum resources to service more customers. Verizon's currently available spectrum is saturated in many places.
    What Verizon lacks in many areas isn’t spectrum, but density.

    Sure, NIMBY might be one reason. But all the spectrum in the world won’t help if the signal doesn’t reach the subscriber. They need to increase density, and not with mmWave snake oil either. Real, actual cell sites are sorely needed in a LOT of areas.


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    Quote Originally Posted by clonehappy View Post
    What Verizon lacks in many areas isn’t spectrum, but density.

    Sure, NIMBY might be one reason. But all the spectrum in the world won’t help if the signal doesn’t reach the subscriber. They need to increase density, and not with mmWave snake oil either. Real, actual cell sites are sorely needed in a LOT of areas.


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    Same with AT&T. The NYC metro has been abandoned by them for years.

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